MMA Stats: Striking Defense of UFC Lightweights

After basically taking a week off from this blog, I thought it was a good time to return and… well, write something. So here’s a look at the 37 UFC lightweights who have at least 60 minutes of fighting recorded by Fight Metric. Today, I’ll be looking at which lightweights do the best job of avoiding significant strikes from their opponents.

Rank	Fighter	Strikes Absorbed/15 min.
1	Danny Castillo	21.3
2	Benson Henderson	23.4
3	Melvin Guillard	23.9
4	Josh Thomson	29.2
5	Pat Healy	29.6
6	Yves Edwards	31.4
7	Gilbert Melendez	32.0
8	Mark Bocek	32.4
9	Gleison Tibau	32.7
10	Anthony Njokuani	32.9
11	Rafael dos Anjos	33.2
12	Gray Maynard	33.6
13	Jim Miller	33.9
14	George Sotiropoulos	35.0
15	Thiago Tavares	35.1
16	Ryan Couture	37.5
17	Jamie Varner	38.7
18	Diego Sanchez	39.0
19	Sean Sherk	40.7
20	Rafaello Oliveira	42.8
21	Jorge Masvidal	44.7
22	Matt Wiman	45.0
23	Nate Diaz	45.5
24	Spencer Fisher	45.5
25	Michael Johnson	45.5
26	Ross Pearson	45.9
27	Takanori Gomi	46.8
28	T.J. Grant	47.6
29	John Makdessi	50.6
30	Mac Danzig	51.2
31	Evan Dunham	53.6
32	K.J. Noons	55.2
33	Aaron Riley	57.2
34	Donald Cerrone	57.8
35	Sam Stout	60.0
36	Joe Lauzon	62.9
37	Paul Taylor	67.1

Like any statistic in MMA, these numbers require some context. There are two ways to prevent an opponent from landing significant strikes. The first is with effective, masterful striking defense, as we see with Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida. The second is by landing takedowns – it’s nearly impossible to land significant strikes from the bottom position on the ground.

In the case of the lightweight division, the three best fighters at avoiding strikes are Danny Castillo, Benson Henderson, and Melvin Guillard. To a large extent, Castillo and Henderson avoid strikes by landing takedowns, and Guillard’s opponents just don’t want to strike with him – more takedowns are landed and attempted against Guillard than any other UFC lightweight.

It’s also worth noting that Castillo has fought 30 minutes – almost 20 percent of his Fight Metric time – against Paul Sass and Jacob Volkmann, neither of whom throw strikes. When I remove those fights, Castillo still only absorbs 25.4 significant strikes per 15 minutes. Either way, he’s very good at not getting hit.

At the other end of the spectrum, it’s no surprise to see Sam Stout and Paul Taylor near the bottom of this list – both fighters are strikers who almost never go for takedowns, and both tend to be matched up against opponents who are also strikers. Case in point: Sam Stout fighting Paul Taylor at UFC 121.

Meanwhile, if you ever wondered why Donald Cerrone or Joe Lauzon were never quite able to break into the elite class of UFC lightweights, now you know why. Both fighters get hit by far too many strikes to win consistently at a high level, especially Lauzon, who doesn’t land nearly as many strikes as he absorbs.

Another bit of necessary context: strength of opponents. Ryan Couture may rank above a number of great fighters on this list, but a number of Couture’s past opponents aren’t nearly good enough to compete in the UFC. By contrast, a fighter like Nate Diaz has fought a gauntlet of extremely tough opponents in his recent career. I’d hesitate before saying Couture is better than Diaz at defending strikes (although he might be).

Top Ten: Fewest Significant Strikes Landed by a UFC Decision Winner

A couple weeks ago, Francis Carmont won a decision against Lorenz Larkin that left me confused and bewildered. While Larkin was landing strikes, Carmont was trying and failing to land takedowns. How in the world did Carmont win the fight?

After the event was over, I looked at the Fight Metric statistics for the contest, and as it turns out, Carmont landed just 12 significant strikes and two takedowns in 15 minutes. I openly wondered if it was the least amount of offense ever produced by the winning fighter in a UFC fight.

This piqued my curiosity, and so I looked through Fight Metric’s database of statistics for UFC fights, to figure out who was able to land the fewest amount of significant strikes in a fight, but still win by decision. As it turns out, there are a handful of fighters who have landed even fewer strikes than Carmont, but still had their hand raised in the end. This covers every UFC fight since UFC 28.

(There were two fights at UFC 28 that would have made this list, but those were only two-round fights, so I decided not to include them.)

Here are the top ten (or bottom ten, depending on your perspective):

 

#9 (tied): UFC 48 – Matt Hughes def. Renato Verissimo – 11 significant strikes

This was one of the original fights that Fight Metric did a report on, arguing that Verissimo should have been awarded the decision back at UFC 48. Hughes landed one takedown in each round, but in the first two rounds, had to fight off three submission attempts and absorbed 39 strikes (although only six of them were graded by Fight Metric as significant). The third round went better for Hughes, but there’s an argument to be made that the scoring should have been 29-28 for Verissimo. Instead, Hughes won a unanimous decision, with two 30-27 scores and one 29-28.

Verissimo was 3-4 after this fight, losing to Frank Trigg, Carlos Condit, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, and Jake Shields.

 

#9 (tied): UFC on Versus 4 – Charlie Brenneman def. Rick Story – 11 significant strikes

I believe that people tend to overrate the underdog’s performance in a fight, and this is a great example of that. Brenneman took this fight on one day’s notice, and was expected to lose to Story, who himself was coming off an upset victory over Thiago Alves. Yes, Brenneman won the takedown battle, with five takedowns landed against just two for Story, but Brenneman did very little with those takedowns, landing just 11 significant strikes, while Story landed 17 significant strikes and attempted four submissions. It wasn’t enough for Story, as Brenneman’s takedowns and top control were enough for the judges to award him a decision win in front of a hometown crowd in Pittsburgh.

 

#7 (tied): TUF 8 Finale – Shane Nelson def. George Roop – 10 significant strikes

Nelson landed one takedown in each round against Roop, and had one submission attempt in both the second and third rounds. That apparently was enough for him to win by decision, as Roop out-struck Nelson, 21-10 in significant strikes, and 93-69 in total strikes. I’ve never watched this fight, but if the statistics are any indication, the real loser in this one was the fans.

 

#7 (tied): UFC 125 – Jacob Volkmann def. Antonio McKee – 10 significant strikes

Spoiler alert: this is not the first time Volkmann will appear on this list. McKee out-struck Volkmann 25-10 in significant strikes, and 41-21 in total strikes. Each fighter landed one takedown, but Volkmann had two submission attempts. In the end, a split decision was awarded to Volkmann. Dana White and Joe Silva were so excited by this match that they released McKee immediately afterwards, despite this being McKee’s UFC debut.

 

#6: UFC 60 – Diego Sanchez def. John Alessio – 9 significant strikes

Apparently, Sanchez winning by very questionable decision is not a new phenomenon. We’re familiar with Sanchez’s debatable wins over Takanori Gomi and Martin Kampmann. At least Sanchez produced a good deal of offense in those fights, because he didn’t do that against John Alessio at UFC 60. In that fight, Sanchez landed just nine significant strikes and one takedown in 16 attempts. In the first round, Sanchez landed two significant strikes and went 0 for 7 on takedown attempts. In the third round, Sanchez landed just one significant strike and failed on both of his takedown attempts. And in the second round, Sanchez did manage to land one takedown, but was still out-struck 9-6 by Alessio.

Despite all of this, Sanchez won by unanimous decision. I think the judges of this fight should have been forced to listen to Bill Walton lecture them about how you can’t mistake activity for achievement, because Sanchez was very active in this fight – he just didn’t achieve anything.

 

#4 (tied): UFC 28 – Renato Sobral def. Maurice Smith – 7 significant strikes

They say that absence makes the heart grow fonder, and there are undoubtedly a lot of MMA fans who think the sport has gotten more boring over time, since the “good old days”. I completely disagree – I don’t think a lot of people realize just how many dreadful fights there used to be in MMA. A perfect example of this is Renato “Babalu” Sobral against Maurice Smith from UFC 28. In this fight, Sobral landed four takedowns, attempted two submissions, and landed seven significant strikes. The bad part is that Sobral was the clear and obvious winner anyway. Both men landed a lot of short and insignificant strikes on the ground, the kind of stuff that would get fighters booed mercilessly if they did it in a fight today.

 

#4 (tied): UFC Fight Night 18 – Gleison Tibau def. Jeremy Stephens – 7 significant strikes

This fight was all about the grappling of Tibau. Stephens did a great job of stopping Tibau’s takedowns early, but Tibau was relentless, and eventually figured out how to take Stephens down consistently. After that, Tibau was dominant was with guard passes and submission attempts. Basically, Tibau did everything in this fight except throw strikes, and was very deserving of the decision victory.

 

#3: UFC on Versus 5 – Jacob Volkmann def. Danny Castillo – 6 significant strikes

Seven months after his split decision win against Antonio McKee at UFC 125, Volkmann proved that he could win despite landing even fewer significant strikes than he did against McKee. Volkmann won the takedown battle against fellow wrestler Danny Castillo, and used his top position to attempt a whopping six submissions. Even though Volkmann couldn’t put Casillo away, that was enough for him to earn the judges’ nod despite his complete lack of striking offense in the fight.

 

#1 (tied): UFC 116 – Daniel Roberts def. Forrest Petz – 5 significant strikes

For his seven-fight UFC career, Roberts landed an anemic 0.73 significant strikes per minute. That’s reflected in his split decision win over Forrest Petz at UFC 116, in which Roberts was out-struck 21-5 in significant strikes and 47-45 in total strikes, but won anyway because of six takedowns and two submission attempts. Roberts definitely has some skill on the ground, but to repeat an often-heard cliché, you need to be well-rounded to win consistently in the UFC. When Roberts faced opponents he couldn’t take down, there was nothing he could do about it.

 

#1 (tied): UFC on FX 7 – Ronny Markes def. Andrew Craig – 5 significant strikes

This fight mostly consisted of Markes clinching, and struggling to take Craig to the ground. Markes landed five out of nine significant strikes and two out of 12 takedowns in 15 minutes. This was enough for Markes to win the first two rounds against Craig, who was smothered and unable to do much of anything. If you’re wondering who produced the least amount of offense in a UFC fight and still won by decision, your answer very well might be Ronny Markes.

The UFC Cuts 16 Fighters

As somebody who has said in the past that I wanted the UFC to trim its roster, I wasn’t necessarily disappointed to see that it had cut 16 fighters. I don’t like to see fighters get cut, but let’s be honest, the UFC can only put on so many fights, and there are plenty of fighters I think should be more active.

Then I saw the list of names that got cut, per MMA Fighting, and my blood started to boil a little bit. Let’s go through the list…

JUSTIFIED CUTS

Wagner Prado – I still think it’s ridiculous that Prado was given Phil Davis for a UFC debut, but he did follow that loss with a submission loss to Ildemar Alcantara, who will next be fighting at welterweight. I’m OK with this one.

Ulysses Gomez – Got mauled by John Moraga, and followed that up with an uninspiring loss to a fringe UFC fighter in Phil Harris. No problems here.

Josh Grispi – I think Grispi should seriously consider another profession, and I don’t say that lightly. I still have no idea what happened to him, but he clearly shouldn’t be in the UFC anymore.

Motonobu Tezuka – A split decision loss to Alex Caceres that shouldn’t have been split, and a loss to Vaughan Lee. No reason to keep Tezuka around.

C.J. Keith – Had tremendous difficulty making weight and was stopped in both his UFC fights. Keith is more talented than he showed, but didn’t do anything to show he belongs in the world’s biggest MMA promotion.

Simeon Thoresen – Was 1-2 in the UFC, but his lone victory was against Besam Yousef. Being out-struck by David Mitchell is not a good look.

Mike Stumpf – Dominated on the ground by T.J. Waldburger, then picked apart standing by Pascal Krauss. There just isn’t UFC level talent here.

GRAY AREA CUTS

In other words, cuts that I think there’s an argument for, but an argument against as well.

Mike Russow – Hasn’t really looked good in his wins, let alone his losses. At the same time, he’s still 4-2 in the UFC and the heavyweight division needs all the depth it can get.

Vladimir Matyushenko – A fighter who did one of two things in his latest UFC stint: either he crushed a low-level light-heavyweight, or he got obliterated by a high-level light-heavyweight. Matyushenko had no upside at all, but a guy who was 4-3 with losses to Jon Jones, Alexander Gustafsson, and Ryan Bader isn’t exactly a guy at the top of my “must cut” list.

Che Mills – Went from a “killer” at 170 pounds to out of the UFC. Mills was basically fodder for Rory MacDonald, but 2-1 otherwise, and still had some potential for good fights in the UFC despite his uninspiring loss to Matt Riddle.

Jay Hieron – His overall UFC record is fairly dismal, but his recent stint featured losses to a top 10 welterweight in Jake Ellenberger and a possible future top 10 welterweight in Tyron Woodley. I get why Hieron was cut, but I wanted to see him get one more chance.

Terry Etim – I really didn’t expect that Etim would lose to Renee Forte. I didn’t get to see the fight, but apparently Etim looked a lot like a fighter who never fully recovered from the Edson Barboza knockout. If I saw the fight, and Etim really did look that bad, then I could see myself putting him in the “justified cuts” category.

Jorge Santiago – He’s similar to Hieron in that his overall UFC record isn’t pretty. But like Hieron, Santiago’s most recent loss was to a very tough opponent in Gunnar Nelson, and Santiago was very competitive in that fight. If Santiago got another chance against the right kind of opponent, I think he could be quite successful.

RIDICULOUS CUTS

These are cuts I just don’t agree with.

Paul Sass – And yes, I’m very biased here, and I did get a chance to watch Sass lose to Danny Castillo. But Sass’s fights are always exciting (to me at least), and he’s 3-2 in the UFC… why would the UFC cut him? I get that Sass probably will never be a real title contender or anything, but I for one enjoy watching a fighter who normally wouldn’t be able to compete use an unorthodox approach to be competitive at a high level.

Jacob Volkmann – I understand that the UFC is an entertainment business, but it’s also a sport… although the sport side of it is slowly eroding it seems. Volkmann was 6-2 since dropping to lightweight, and while his loss to Bobby Green was very surprising, Volkmann clearly has the talent to compete in the UFC. I get why he was cut, but I really don’t like it.

Jon Fitch – The “main event” of the cuts. This is absurd. Fitch is 14-3-1 in the UFC, and while I might be a lone wolf on this, I never thought Fitch was as boring as a lot of fans seem to think. Whenever Fitch fights, he’s active and attacking. Yes, he just lost to Demian Maia, but Maia is a top five welterweight in the world. And yes, Fitch is on the career decline now, but a fighter who was able to win UFC fights as consistently as Fitch deserves a lot more respect than he just got.

I’m all for the UFC looking to entertain the fans, but I also think mixed martial arts is a sport, and that as a sport, it should reward fighters who usually get their hand raised when they fight. By releasing fighters like Jon Fitch and Jacob Volkmann, the UFC is sending the message that it’s more important to be entertaining than it is to win fights. That kind of message might be what’s needed in the UFC, but I think there are better ways to send that message than to give pink slips to fighters who perhaps aren’t the most entertaining in the organization.

UFC 156 Post-Fight Analysis

No shortage of surprising results in this one, although I think I can fairly say the results were a little less surprising for me than they may have been for most fans. Here are my thoughts on what we just saw:

-There’s not much I can say about Jose Aldo that hasn’t been said. He’s simply a super-talented fighter, excellent in all facets of MMA. If Aldo ever decides to move up to the lightweight division, I could easily see myself favoring him to beat Benson Henderson – he’s that good. If Frankie Edgar wants to be a UFC champion again, he needs to find a way to tighten up his striking defense. He simply gets tagged by too many hard strikes to win consistently at a championship level. But it’s hard to criticize Edgar too much when he puts up competitive fights against the best fighters in the world.

-From my preview piece: “I do want to submit the possibility that Nogueira out-points Evans with strikes here.” And that’s exactly what happened. Rashad Evans looked entirely unmotivated, like a fighter who knows he’s been the champion in the past, failed in his attempt to knock Jon Jones off the light-heavyweight throne, and didn’t have much left to fight for. As a result, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira was able to skate by and win a unanimous decision. This loss also removes Evans as an option to face Anderson Silva. I look forward to the UFC finding a reason not to give Chris Weidman that title shot.

-I didn’t think Alistair Overeem would be knocked out by Antonio Silva, but anybody who’s been following my blog for a while has known that I’ve been beating the drum about Overeem being overrated for a long time now. Overeem easily won the first two rounds, but when he was a light-heavyweight, his fights followed a similar pattern – one of Overeem dominating early, only to gas out and lose by TKO. I do want to give “Bigfoot” credit, but at the same time, he really got shut down in the first 10 minutes. He’s already been destroyed by both Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, and Junior dos Santos would likely crush him as well.

-With Overeem out of the title picture, it’s hard to imagine who will challenge Cain Velasquez next. Daniel Cormier is clearly the most deserving challenger, but is unlikely to fight his teammate. Junior dos Santos probably needs to win a fight before getting a rubber match against Velasquez. The next man in line after that would be Fabricio Werdum, but Werdum is fighting Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and that fight won’t take place until the summer. Antonio Silva certainly put his name into the title discussion, but Velasquez beat him so brutally that it’s difficult to sell a rematch. I suppose a third fight between Velasquez and dos Santos is most likely, but Overeem’s loss does put the heavyweight division in a tough position.

-It’s time to start naming Demian Maia among the elite welterweights of the world. We all knew he had world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but we didn’t know Maia would be able to consistently take down Jon Fitch and get his back. This, after Maia did the same thing to Rick Story and Dong Hyun Kim. Maia’s skill set makes him a serious threat to beat any welterweight in the world, and it will take a fighter with some excellent takedown defense and grappling to stop him. As for Fitch, well… *cough* 9 year rule *cough*

-If none of the UFC bantamweights had moved down to flyweight, Ian McCall would probably be the champion there. But when Joseph Benavidez and Demetrious Johnson made the obvious decision to fight at 125 pounds, they immediately became the two best fighters in the weight class. Outside of a stumble late in the second round, Benavidez was consistently the better striker and overall fighter, and showed that he’s simply a higher level fighter than McCall is. Benavidez will likely fight Demetrious Johnson again next, and I anticipate I’ll favor Johnson to win again. Here’s hoping the flyweight division can produce some new legitimate title contenders soon.

–Gleison Tibau was impressive early against Evan Dunham, but used a lot of energy, and just couldn’t match Dunham’s pace later in the fight. Dunham is the much better boxer, and because he was also more fresh, was able to deny Tibau’s attempts to either control him on the ground or finish him with a choke. I’m not sure why Dunham thought going for takedowns on Tibau was a good idea, but he fought well overall.

-I’ve mentioned the effectiveness of the power punching/wrestling combo before. I think it’s safe to say that Tyron Woodley is the newest addition to that club. Woodley was a SILVA favorite, a fighter identified as a possible star in the UFC, but he hadn’t shown that kind of talent in his actual fights. Now with 12 fights under his belt, Woodley is just entering his prime, and I expect him to make some noise in the UFC welterweight division.

-Never did I think that Jacob Volkmann would lose to Bobby Green by gassing out after one round, but that’s exactly what happened. Credit goes to Green, who certainly played a role in causing Volkmann to gas out. Green is a talented fighter, but I thought this was an awful style match for him, and Volkmann was threatening to submit him late in the first round. Then Volkmann was exhausted, and Green capitalized. Great win for Bobby Green, and a bad loss for Jacob Volkmann.

-I don’t usually single out referees, because so many of them are flawed, and it’s the kind of thing I can only imagine is more difficult than it looks. With that said, I get nervous whenever Kim Winslow is the referee for a fight, because it seems she has a disproportionate number of mistakes and poor decisions. She made another mistake in the fight between Green and Volkmann – Green had advanced to half guard in the second round, and was very active with effective strikes, but Winslow inexplicably stood the fight up anyway. In a sport with great referees such as John McCarthy, Herb Dean, and Josh Rosenthal, it seems wrong that a mistake-prone referee like Winslow would get assignments in the biggest promotion in the world. I understand the Nevada State Athletic Commission has a budget, and has a history with McCarthy… but come on. You can find a way to hire McCarthy to work MMA shows in your state.

-There are some fighters who get by on pure talent, and then there are fighters like Isaac Vallie-Flagg. He doesn’t have great KO power, doesn’t have a great submission game, and doesn’t have dominant takedowns either. What Vallie-Flagg has is conditioning and aggression, and those attributes are what got him by Yves Edwards. I did have numbers that very slightly favored Vallie-Flagg entering the fight – Vallie-Flagg had a 2378 ELO against Edwards’s 2358, and they had an identical early-career SILVA score. But I was a weenie and picked Edwards instead – perhaps I should have more faith in the numbers. With that said, Vallie-Flagg has a relatively low ceiling, but should be able to provide some fun fights at least. As for Edwards, he’s in the worst kind of decline phase – he’s still skilled enough to be competitive, but the sport is just passing him by very, very slowly. It’s easy to like Edwards, but he’s really a low-level UFC gatekeeper at this point.

–Chico Camus clearly has fight IQ issues. Camus was easily getting the better of Dustin Kimura on the feet, and was obviously the better wrestler as well. But Kimura was far better on the ground, to the point that Kimura had the advantage, even from bottom position. Camus should have had little trouble keeping the fight at standing distance and out-pointing Kimura, but for some reason, he kept going for takedowns. Kimura has some serious talent on the ground, and it’s easy to see how he was able to win so consistently on the regional circuit. If he wants to climb the UFC bantamweight ladder, he’ll have to improve his striking and wrestling, because while he was fantastic on the ground, he needed Camus’s help to get the fight there.

–Francisco Rivera got away with one against Edwin Figueroa. I feel like I’m becoming a broken record by saying this, but the single best attribute an aspiring contender can have is striking defense. Rivera clearly does not have that, as he got hit by big punches from Figueroa early and often. I’ll put it this way – needing your opponent to gas out is not a way to win fights on any sort of consistent basis. As exciting as Rivera’s TKO win was, it doesn’t leave me thinking that Rivera is going to perform well against more established UFC bantamweights.

SILVA Predictions for UFC 146

A few surprises here:

Since I’ve written a preview post on the main card fights, here are some quick thoughts on the preliminaries:

-Diego Brandao is a heavy favorite to beat Darren Elkins, but SILVA seems to think Elkins is the heavy favorite. Brandao has a handful of TKO losses in his career, so that seems to be the way to beat him, but Elkins has only shown a marginal ability to win that way. I’ll go along with the betting public and pick Brandao in this one.

-Anybody who’s followed this blog knows all about how much I like Edson Barboza, and I’ve thought he would be a UFC superstar since before he made his UFC debut against Mike Lullo. So far, he hasn’t disappointed, and there’s no way in hell I’m not going to pick him to beat Jamie Varner. Hopefully Varner will at least test Barboza’s wrestling and grappling, unlike Barboza’s UFC opponents thus far.

-Jason “Mayhem” Miller is a better striker and has a better ground game than C.B. Dollaway, but Dollaway has better wrestling. In the end, this may come down to who gasses out first, and while Miller looked awful against Bisping, his gassing out was a bit of an aberration in my opinion. I like Miller to win, but it’s close.

-I’m definitely going against SILVA in Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig. Ludwig is awful on the ground, while Hardy has at least shown the ability to survive there, which explains the difference in how good these fighters are overall. But in this specific style match, I have to favor Ludwig, as he’s a better striker than Hardy.

-I’m going against SILVA for a third time in Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass. Volkmann is actually the betting favorite, but what I wrote about how much I like Edson Barboza applies to Sass as well. It’s also a bad style match for Volkmann, who is a terrific wrestler and great at positioning, but has had to battle his fair share of submission attempts made against him. Enter Sass, the most likely fighter in MMA to want to be in bottom position on the ground.

-The biggest shocker is Glover Teixeira, whose SILVA score of 79.74 rates him #5 in the world at light-heavyweight. Teixeira has built his SILVA score in a similar manner as Nick Diaz and Hector Lombard: he’s beaten decent/good fighters on a very consistent basis. The only difference is that Teixeira hasn’t had a platform like Strikeforce or Bellator to showcase his skills. I like him to beat Kyle Kingsbury and at least make a run into title contention in the UFC light-heavyweight division.

-Daniel Pineda has looked very impressive in the UFC thus far, but on the flip side, his opponents were Max Holloway and Mackens Semerzier. Mike Brown may represent a step up in competition, but Brown has looked like a shot fighter since losing to Jose Aldo in the WEC. It’s a hard one to call, but I’ll go along with SILVA and take Pineda.

SILVA Predictions for UFC 141

Facebook Fights

• 145 lbs: Diego Nunes (64.16) over Manny Gamburyan (43.25)
• 170 lbs: Luis Ramos (39.94) over Matt Riddle (36.49)
• 155 lbs: Jacob Volkmann (67.17) over Efrain Escudero (47.81)
• 170 lbs: Dong Hyun Kim (68.34) over Sean Pierson (40.43)

Spike TV Fights

• 155 lbs: Danny Castillo (53.99) over Anthony Njokuani (33.90)
• 145 lbs: Ross Pearson (50.95) over Junior Assuncao (41.49)

Main Card Fights

• 145 lbs: Jim Hettes (47.22) over Nam Phan (23.78)
• 205 lbs: Alexander Gustafsson (73.66) over Vladimir Matyushenko (68.31)
• 170 lbs: Jon Fitch (81.11) over Johny Hendricks (80.82)
• 155 lbs: Donald Cerrone (76.31) over Nate Diaz (46.86)
• 265 lbs: Brock Lesnar (74.29) over Alistair Overeem (74.05)

 

Summary

While Lesnar vs. Overeem is the only big-time fight here from a marketing perspective, this is a solid fight card from top to bottom. Having three of the Facebook fights feature fighters with a SILVA score over 60 is pretty rare, and I’m intrigued with every fight on the pay-per-view card, especially to see how SILVA favorites Alexander Gustafsson and Johny Hendricks perform.

The big underdog pick of the card

It’s easy to see why Jim Hettes is an underdog to Nam Phan. Hettes didn’t look particularly great in his last fight against Alex Caceres, and he’s won all of his fights by submission, while Phan has never lost by submission. Regardless, Hettes is SILVA’s pick to win, based on Phan’s history of losing to quality opponents. Keep in mind that while this section is called “the big underdog pick of the card,” Hettes isn’t that big of an underdog, being listed at about +160 at the moment. Your other underdog pick is none other than Brock Lesnar.

UFC 141 Preview: Facebook Fights

Just an FYI to anybody out there who might not be aware – this week’s UFC takes place on Friday, December 30th with the pay-per-view starting at 7:00 PT/10:00 ET. Make sure you don’t find yourself getting spoiled on fight results on Saturday morning.

145 lbs: Manny Gamburyan vs. Diego Nunes

After building a 16-1 professional record, Diego Nunes found himself on the verge of a title shot, facing Kenny Florian in the co-main event of UFC 131 in Vancouver, but hidden behind the 16-1 record was a fighter who was skating by his opponents to get there. Nunes won by split decision in two out of his last three victories, against Mike Brown at UFC 125 and Raphael Assuncao at WEC 49. Nunes had lost decisively to L.C. Davis at WEC 44, and while Nunes was able to finish all of his opponents prior to entering the WEC, since making his debut under Zuffa, all of Nunes’s seven fights have gone to decision.

I thought Nunes looked pretty sloppy against Florian, which means he’ll probably be a good match for Manny Gamburyan, a fighter who also found himself in the status of top contender after a win over Mike Brown. In Gamburyan’s case, it was a first-round KO win over Brown that got him there, but he wound up completely over-matched against Jose Aldo, and was shut down in a decisive loss. Despite his reputation as a good judo player, Gamburyan only lands 30% of his takedown attempts according to Fight Metric, and despite his reputation as a powerful striker, Gamburyan has only two wins by KO/TKO.

SILVA PREDICTION: DIEGO NUNES (64.16) OVER MANNY GAMBURYAN (43.25)

After the KO win over Brown, it’s slim pickings as far as Gamburyan’s record is concerned. In his Zuffa career, Gamburyan got quick submission wins over Nate Mohr and Jeff Cox, and later decision wins over John Franchi and Leonard Garcia. There’s not a whole lot of consistent success there. With Diego Nunes, you’re not going to get a fighter who will dominate his opponent, but in this fight, the safe bet is to go with Nunes to win another decision.

170 lbs: Luis Ramos vs. Matt Riddle

After losing in just 40 seconds to Erick Silva at UFC 134 in Rio de Janeiro, Luis Ramos will make his return at UFC 141 against Matt Riddle. Under normal circumstances, I would guess that the loser would be cut from the UFC, but with the UFC set to put on a record number of shows next year, it’s unlikely that either man would be cut unless he looked particularly bad. I haven’t seen a whole lot of Ramos – in fact, I’ve only seen 40 seconds – but his fight history reveals only a series of wins against decent opponents; none of those are truly UFC-level fights.

He might have a chance to beat Matt Riddle though, especially if Riddle decides to use the same horrible style of striking he showcased against both Sean Pierson and Lance Benoist. Pierson is a decent boxer, and Benoist showed a lot of poise for a very young MMA fighter, but they would have had a much tougher time if Riddle wasn’t full of arm punches. Riddle is much better when he uses his strong wrestling, and strikes his opponent on the ground, which he did against Benoist in the third round of their fight.

SILVA PREDICTION: LUIS RAMOS (39.94) OVER MATT RIDDLE (36.49)

This one’s simple from my perspective. If Riddle takes Ramos to the ground, it’s his fight to lose. If Riddle instead decides to show more boxercising, then Ramos is a good bet to win his first UFC fight.

155 lbs: Efrain Escudero vs. Jacob Volkmann

TUF 8 lightweight winner Efrain Escudero became just the second TUF winner to be cut from the UFC (after Travis Lutter) based on missing weight on top of being overwhelmed by Charles Oliveira in September 2010, but time heals a lot of wounds, especially when the UFC needs an injury replacement to take on Jacob Volkmann. Escudero is primarily a wrestler, as he landed seven takedowns to beat Phillipe Nover at the TUF 8 Finale, but either didn’t have a lot of success with the takedown or didn’t go to it much afterwards, landing just one takedown in his following four fights.

I have a feeling Escudero will need to use his striking to prevail in this one, because Volkmann is a very strong wrestler, and a very strong grappler on top of that. Volkmann rarely beats his opponent with striking volume, landing just 1.28 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career. Instead, Volkmann wins fights by getting in superior position and attempting submissions. Volkmann won his last fight against Danny Castillo despite being out-struck 22-6, and won his previous fight against Antonio McKee despite being out-struck 25-10.

SILVA PREDICTION: JACOB VOLKMANN (67.17) OVER EFRAIN ESCUDERO (47.81)

If winning despite being out-struck is a leading indicator of struggles ahead (and I would love to study that in the future), then Efrain Escudero could be the surprising winner of this fight. But if it instead comes down to the wrestling game, Volkmann has to be favored, since history has shown he’s simply better at it than Escudero is.

170 lbs: Dong Hyun Kim vs. Sean Pierson

At UFC 132, Dong Hyun Kim found himself in great position to at least be thrust into title contender status with a fight against the highly-ranked Carlos Condit. At 14-0-1, Kim was undefeated, and a win over Condit would have been just what he needed to get some “buzz” going. However, hidden behind that 14-0-1 record was a loss to Karo Parisyan that was overturned due to Parisyan abusing painkillers at UFC 94, a split decision win over Matt Brown, and a very questionable unanimous decision victory over Nate Diaz at UFC 125. The result: a Condit win by first-round flying knee KO.

That’s why Sean Pierson has to be considered at least a “live” underdog here: while Pierson’s record isn’t one of a championship contender’s, he has at least shown the ability to strike with volume, landing 112 significant strikes against Matt Riddle, and Kim isn’t anybody’s idea of a prolific striker. What Kim is able to do, however, is use his judo very effectively, as he’s landed at least one takedown in all of his UFC fights. While I haven’t seen much of Pierson’s ability to defend takedowns (Riddle only tried to take him down twice, and Jake Ellenberger knocked him out very quickly), it’s probably a good bet that Kim will get him down to the ground.

SILVA PREDICTION: DONG HYUN KIM (68.34) OVER SEAN PIERSON (40.43)

Combine these facts with Kim’s stronger record, and he has to be considered the favorite to win this fight. If Pierson is able to keep the fight standing for a significant length of time, he could very well win a decision with striking volume. It’s just more likely that Kim will take him down consistently enough to avoid that fate.

A Look at the Landscape of the UFC Lightweight Division

After last night’s fights, things in the lightweight division in the UFC have been scrambled up pretty darn well, especially with Ben Henderson’s victory over Jim Miller. We know that Gray Maynard will be challenging Frank Edgar again for the lightweight title, but after that, who’s next?

First, let’s take a look at the top 15 UFC lightweights according to SILVA:

1. Gray Maynard – 54.05
2. Frank Edgar – 50.23
3. Edson Barboza – 46.54
4. Jim Miller – 45.90
5. Paul Sass – 44.64
6. Jacob Volkmann – 44.61
7. Donald Cerrone – 43.49
8. Takanori Gomi – 43.46
9. Ben Henderson – 43.16
10. Kamal Shalorus – 40.29
11. Sean Sherk – 38.14
12. Clay Guida – 35.14
13. Anthony Njokuani – 34.21
14. Bart Palaszewski – 33.19
15. Charles Oliveira – 32.92

Now, let’s use process of elimination to determine who may be in the running for next title challenger.

#1 Gray Maynard and #2 Frank Edgar are already fighting for the title, so they’re out (and I can’t imagine that the result of the fight would warrant another rematch).

#3 Edson Barboza and #5 Paul Sass are up and coming fighters and haven’t entered real title contention yet.

#4 Jim Miller, #8 Takanori Gomi, #10 Kamal Shalorus, #14 Bart Palaszewski, and #15 Charles Oliveira are coming off losses.

#11 Sean Sherk has been very inactive.

That leaves the following candidates for the next title contender: #6 Jacob Volkmann, #7 Donald Cerrone, #9 Ben Henderson, #12 Clay Guida, and #13 Anthony Njokuani.

I think we can safely dismiss Volkmann and Njokuani. Neither man has a win against a highly-ranked or highly-rated opponent. Volkmann’s best victories are against Antonio McKee, Paul Kelly, and Danny Castillo. Njokuani’s best wins are against Chris Horodecki, Bart Palaszewski, and Andre Winner.

That leaves Cerrone, Henderson, and Guida. I think Cerrone has to take a back seat to Henderson and Guida, for the following reason: Cerrone has lost to Henderson twice in his career, and Henderson lost to Anthony Pettis, who was recently defeated by Guida. It’s MMA math, but in determining who the next title contender should be, it’s a valid way to look at things.

In my opinion, Henderson has the best victory between him and Guida, with his win against Jim Miller. Miller is an extremely highly-ranked and highly-rated lightweight, and Henderson beat him in very convincing fashion. Guida has some strong wins recently, but none are quite as strong as the Miller win.

With that said, I’m going to predict that Guida will be the next title challenger, mostly due to his win against Pettis. It needs to be remembered that Pettis was going to be the challenger to the title at one point, a status that was taken away after losing to Guida. While Henderson might have the better overall resume in my opinion, Guida is the fighter who is in the right place at the right time.

My prediction: Guida will challenge the winner of Edgar-Maynard 3 (and lose). Henderson will need one more fight before being granted a title shot, possibly against Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez, assuming that Melendez beats Jorge Masvidal. The others, including Cerrone and Volkmann, are still multiple wins away from serious title consideration.