FPR Update – 10/29

Fighter Performance Ratings on this blog have been updated for all UFC fighters. They can be accessed via the links on the sidebar.

Here are some quick notes from the update:

–Cain Velasquez goes down to +17.35 because he was a little less dominant than normal against Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez still has easily the highest FPR in the UFC. Between that performance by Velasquez and Jon Jones‘ struggles against Alexander Gustafsson, there aren’t too many people calling for Jones to challenge for the heavyweight title these days. That is as it should be.

–Lyoto Machida checks in at middleweight as the second-best fighter in the division according to FPR. Machida trails only Chris Weidman and is well ahead of Anderson Silva. The obvious match to make if Weidman beats Silva again is to have him face Machida… assuming Machida can defeat Vitor Belfort or whoever else he’s matched up against next.

-If Jimi Manuwa keeps up his current pace over 60 minutes he’ll have an FPR of +5.46, which would rank 7th at light-heavyweight ahead of Mauricio Rua and behind Ryan Bader. The reason Manuwa’s FPR isn’t that good yet (+1.07) is because I’ve designed FPR to make a fighter “prove it.” In other words, prove you’re that good on a consistent basis. I think the jury is still out on Manuwa as a potential top 10 fighter at 205 pounds.

-Here is the FPR of every fighter from TUF 15 who is still in the UFC:

• Myles Jury +2.70
• Al Iaquinta +0.27
• Daron Cruickshank +0.27
• James Vick -1.98
• Jon Tuck -2.03
• James Krause -2.09
• Jeremy Larsen -2.52
• Joe Proctor -2.93

So far it looks like Jury, Iaquinta, and Cruickshank are the mainstays from that season. James Vick could easily join them as he’s only fought in the UFC for one minute so far. I still think Jury has the highest upside of the group.

UFC 166 Fight Scores

Due to time constraints I’m afraid my coverage of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 30 card will be very limited. I plan on at least having a write-up on the main event between Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz later this week. For now it’s time to look at the fight scores from UFC 166.

Fight Score is a simple statistic that rates how well one fighter performed against another using Fight Metric statistics. If one fighter had a Fight Score of +5.00, that means his opponent’s Fight Score was -5.00. Here is what each Fight Score means:

 

+29.35 Gabriel Gonzaga def. Shawn Jordan by KO, 1:33 round 1

This fight is a perfect example of why I don’t like to hear that Shawn Jordan is still “learning the MMA game.” He was badly out-boxed by Gabriel Gonzaga, which is kind of like being badly out-wrestled by “Shogun” Rua. Jordan was aggressive but whenever he threw strikes he would miss and Gonzaga would hit. Jordan appears doomed for a career of being a low-level gatekeeper in the UFC heavyweight division. He can beat the Pat Barrys of the world but that’s about it.

Don’t get too hyped about the talk of Gonzaga refining his striking. When he faces a tougher opponent he’ll go back to being the same mediocre striker he always has been.

+25.28 Hector Lombard def. Nate Marquardt by KO, 1:48 round 1

It’s plainly obvious that Nate Marquardt is no longer a high-level welterweight fighter without the benefit of TRT. For all the talk about how TRT does not improve fighters – and I agree that it doesn’t – TRT DOES prolong a fighter’s career. Since going off TRT, Marquardt has been knocked out by Hector Lombard, knocked out by Jake Ellenberger, badly out-pointed by Tarec Saffiedine, and nearly knocked out by Tyron Woodley. FPR still rates Marquardt highly due to the many years of success he had in the past – but I’ll have to make sure not to overrate him in the future.

It’s also a great victory for Hector Lombard. Even with his struggles in the UFC his punching power was never in doubt.

+23.72 John Dodson def. Darrell Montague by TKO, 4:13 round 1

For about half of this fight Montague was basically a sub-conscious human being. Dodson has incredible hand speed and knockout power for the flyweight division, but is also excellent at getting in the perfect range to throw his power left hand. I was also impressed by Dodson’s patience in not rushing for the finish. Good stuff.

+14.13 Adlan Amagov def. T.J. Waldburger by KO, 3:45 round 1

Through two UFC fights I see no reason to hold up the Adlan Amagov hype train. He shut down Chris Spang and now quickly knocked out T.J. Waldburger. His takedown defense in particular was extremely impressive. The one caveat to this win is: Waldburger has a glass chin and this is his sixth career knockout loss. Even so it was a very impressive performance by Amagov against a very tough opponent.

As much as I hate to say this, Waldburger should take a hard look at how much longer he wants to keep fighting. He’s only 25 years old but his susceptibility to being knocked out is very troubling.

+8.16 Andre Fili def. Jeremy Larsen by TKO, 0:53 round 2

FPR says I should already be hyped up about Andre Fili. My eyes (which are not as good at predicting fights as FPR) say that Fili has some holes in his game that tough fighters will exploit. My brain says that even an impressive win against Jeremy Larsen is not something to overreact to. For now I’m putting Fili in the “keep an eye on him” category – if he beats a tougher opponent in impressive fashion then I’ll think about boarding the hype train.

+7.70 Daniel Cormier def. Roy Nelson by Decision (Unanimous)

Cormier had the perfect game plan – wear Nelson out by grappling him early, then evade his strikes for the remainder of the fight. Nelson landed a grand total of 17 significant strikes in 15 minutes. Nelson’s complaint that Cormier wasn’t fighting him is hilarious. Cormier landed fast, hard strikes that would have knocked out a lot of opponents. Cormier landed 74 significant strikes on Nelson – and somehow that adds up to “not fighting.” The reality is that Cormier took away Nelson’s only hope of beating him – the knockout by overhand right. Cormier is just the far superior fighter/athlete.

+7.54 Cain Velasquez def. Junior Dos Santos by KO, 3:09 round 5

After watching this fight, I am now convinced more than ever… that Cain Velasquez is the best MMA fighter of all time. I say that not in terms of what Velasquez has accomplished, but instead in terms of his ability to win fights against elite opponents. Junior Dos Santos is one of the three best heavyweights ever (in my humble opinion), alongside Velasquez and Fedor Emelianenko. For the second straight match, Velasquez clobbered Dos Santos so badly that it left everybody feeling uneasy about the implications of the fight for the health of Dos Santos.

Velasquez is the best heavyweight in the world and it’s not close. Dos Santos is the second-best heavyweight in the world and it’s not close – and he just lost the trilogy match to Velasquez. Who at heavyweight is going to beat Velasquez? Fabricio Werdum? Does anybody really think Werdum is somehow going to find a way to win by submission?

Strangely enough, of the fighters likely to face Velasquez in the near future, Travis Browne might have the best chance of winning – just because he has the best knockout power. The only flaw in the game of Velasquez is that he’s not good at slipping or avoiding strikes thrown in his direction. Dos Santos tagged Velasquez with a series of very hard punches. By the way, I would love to see anybody argue that Velasquez has a poor or suspect chin right now.

The reality is that the rest of the UFC heavyweight division is doomed for a long time. Velasquez is set to go on an Anderson Silva/Georges St-Pierre type of title reign. There is simply nobody in the division who is anywhere close to as good as Velasquez.

+7.12 Kyoji Horiguchi def. Dustin Pague by TKO, 3:51 round 2

+6.16 Tony Ferguson def. Mike Rio by Submission (D’Arce Choke), 1:52 round 2

So much for the idea that Mike Rio would give Tony Ferguson a tough fight. Memo to Mike Rio: the days of being competitive in the UFC with no submission defense ended a long time ago. After losing by arm-triangle choke in the half guard against Francisco Trinaldo, now Rio taps out again within two minutes. I have to think Rio gets cut by the UFC… but even if he doesn’t, the book on Rio has pretty much been written. Grab the nearest limb, torque it in some unnatural direction, and pocket the win bonus.

+1.47 Gilbert Melendez def. Diego Sanchez by Decision (Unanimous)

Obviously you don’t need me to tell you how crazy this fight was. I do think the “best fight of all time” accolades are a bit over the top… but this certainly ranks up there. It also showed that as flawed as he is, Sanchez isn’t a super easy opponent to face. Against a great opponent like Melendez, Sanchez did exactly what he should do. Fight like a crazy person – Wanderlei style.

The lightweight division is the opposite of the heavyweight division. At heavyweight there are two elite fighters and the rest of the division pales in comparison. At lightweight there’s very little difference between a top five fighter like Melendez and a fringe top 25 fighter like Sanchez. There are a bunch of lightweights who could plausibly become UFC champion.

-0.07 K.J. Noons def. George Sotiropoulos by Decision (Unanimous)

A razor-close fight that could have been fairly scored either way, although Fight Score gives the slightest of edges to Sotiropoulos.

-2.20 Jessica Eye def. Sarah Kaufman by Decision (Split)

The significant strike count here was Kaufman 87, Eye 65. Kaufman out-struck Eye in the second and third rounds. A questionable decision to say the least.

-2.27 Tim Boetsch def. C.B. Dollaway by Decision (Split)

I’m tempted to complain that my picks of Sotiropoulos and Kaufman should have gone my way… but I also picked Tim Boetsch. Dollaway landed more strikes and had a 3-0 edge in takedowns and 4-0 in guard passes. Boetsch had three submission attempts. Somehow Boetsch earned a 30-26 score on two scorecards.

Between the bizarre scores and the laissez-faire approach to dealing with very deep cuts and badly wounded fighters, all I can say is that I’m not impressed with the Texas athletic commission. Let’s put it on the same list as Nevada. And California. And Florida. And a bunch of other states…

UFC 166 Prediction: Junior Dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez

At UFC on Fox 1 I picked Junior Dos Santos to beat Cain Velasquez and was rewarded with a first-round knockout victory. At UFC 155… well, I picked Dos Santos to win the first time and got it right, so why wouldn’t I pick him again? What I saw then was five rounds of Velasquez making me look like a blithering idiot.

Will I make it a trifecta of picking Dos Santos to win this fight? The only way to find out is by checking out my breakdown of this fight at JasonSomerville.com! (And waiting for my predictions summary later today…)

SILVA Predictions for UFC 146

A few surprises here:

Since I’ve written a preview post on the main card fights, here are some quick thoughts on the preliminaries:

-Diego Brandao is a heavy favorite to beat Darren Elkins, but SILVA seems to think Elkins is the heavy favorite. Brandao has a handful of TKO losses in his career, so that seems to be the way to beat him, but Elkins has only shown a marginal ability to win that way. I’ll go along with the betting public and pick Brandao in this one.

-Anybody who’s followed this blog knows all about how much I like Edson Barboza, and I’ve thought he would be a UFC superstar since before he made his UFC debut against Mike Lullo. So far, he hasn’t disappointed, and there’s no way in hell I’m not going to pick him to beat Jamie Varner. Hopefully Varner will at least test Barboza’s wrestling and grappling, unlike Barboza’s UFC opponents thus far.

-Jason “Mayhem” Miller is a better striker and has a better ground game than C.B. Dollaway, but Dollaway has better wrestling. In the end, this may come down to who gasses out first, and while Miller looked awful against Bisping, his gassing out was a bit of an aberration in my opinion. I like Miller to win, but it’s close.

-I’m definitely going against SILVA in Dan Hardy vs. Duane Ludwig. Ludwig is awful on the ground, while Hardy has at least shown the ability to survive there, which explains the difference in how good these fighters are overall. But in this specific style match, I have to favor Ludwig, as he’s a better striker than Hardy.

-I’m going against SILVA for a third time in Jacob Volkmann vs. Paul Sass. Volkmann is actually the betting favorite, but what I wrote about how much I like Edson Barboza applies to Sass as well. It’s also a bad style match for Volkmann, who is a terrific wrestler and great at positioning, but has had to battle his fair share of submission attempts made against him. Enter Sass, the most likely fighter in MMA to want to be in bottom position on the ground.

-The biggest shocker is Glover Teixeira, whose SILVA score of 79.74 rates him #5 in the world at light-heavyweight. Teixeira has built his SILVA score in a similar manner as Nick Diaz and Hector Lombard: he’s beaten decent/good fighters on a very consistent basis. The only difference is that Teixeira hasn’t had a platform like Strikeforce or Bellator to showcase his skills. I like him to beat Kyle Kingsbury and at least make a run into title contention in the UFC light-heavyweight division.

-Daniel Pineda has looked very impressive in the UFC thus far, but on the flip side, his opponents were Max Holloway and Mackens Semerzier. Mike Brown may represent a step up in competition, but Brown has looked like a shot fighter since losing to Jose Aldo in the WEC. It’s a hard one to call, but I’ll go along with SILVA and take Pineda.

UFC 146 Preview: Main Card Fights

UFC 146 will feature an all-heavyweight main card, an idea that has its advantages and its disadvantages. Advantages include the likelihood for a lot of stoppages and an appeal to those who enjoy heavyweight MMA more than the other weight classes. The biggest disadvantage is that there seems to be a greater chance that heavyweights withdraw from fights due to injury (I don’t have data to back that up, but it certainly seems to be the case). Here’s how the UFC 146 card looked originally:

• Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
• Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir
• Antonio Silva vs. Roy Nelson
• Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve
• Shane del Rosario vs. Gabriel Gonzaga

And here’s how it looks now:

• Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
• Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
• Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
• Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
• Shane del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

To the UFC’s credit, they were able to keep the main card somewhat intact, as every heavyweight competing is at least a quality fighter. At the same time, losing the title fight of Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem and instead getting Frank Mir is a genuine bummer. But here are my thoughts on the main card fights:

 

265 lbs: Shane del Rosario (11-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Stipe Miocic (8-0, 2-0 UFC)

I don’t think I’ll ever be able to get over the idea that Stipe Miocic has a Croatian name, and wears the trunks of Mirko Cro Cop, but was born in Ohio and when he speaks, sounds very much like somebody who was born in Ohio. One thing that doesn’t throw me for a loop is how good of a prospect he is. Miocic won his UFC debut against Joey Beltran despite having just 18 months of pro MMA experience, and followed that up with a lightning-fast KO of Phil De Fries in his last fight. Miocic has good striking, including very good leg kicks, and has a very strong wrestling background as well. With Miocic rated as the #14 heavyweight in the world by SILVA at such an early point in his career, it’s not too difficult to see a championship fight happening sometime in his future.

But Miocic will be taking on a very tough opponent in Shane del Rosario. Like Miocic, del Rosario is undefeated and has well-rounded skills, including a kickboxing background to go along with a competent ground game. In fact, there’s a lot about these two that are very similar: both fighters usually are able to finish their opponent, both are well-rounded, and both are undefeated. Naturally, it stands to reason that they would have almost an identical SILVA score. The one thing I feel is in Miocic’s favor is again that he has just been succeeding at a very fast pace, with two years of pro fighting experience compared to del Rosario’s six years, not to mention that del Rosario has been very inactive lately.

SILVA PREDICTION: STIPE MIOCIC (67.88) OVER SHANE DEL ROSARIO (66.74)

 

265 lbs: Lavar Johnson (17-5, 2-0 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (23-5, 7-3 UFC)

I don’t think I’ve ever previewed a fight with such a stark contrast in fighters, and that includes the initial proposed fight between Struve and Mark Hunt. Lavar Johnson is a big fighter, hits like a ton of bricks, and has won 15 out of 22 career fights by KO/TKO. He’s also a complete fish out of water on the ground. Meanwhile, Stefan Struve has a few wins by TKO and a bunch by submission, and is quietly one of the better submission fighters in the UFC. He also is extremely tall but has little idea how to use his reach, and has been violently knocked out three times in the UFC now.

I have no insight to offer that anybody else wouldn’t. If Struve fails to get this fight to the ground, I expect Johnson to pummel him and knock him out. If Struve does manage to get Johnson to the ground, he should be able to win by submission in short order. The one thing that might make this fight lean Struve’s way is that Johnson has fairly awful cardio and typically starts fading by the end of the first round. At the same time, Struve does not have good takedowns, and has only landed three in the entirety of his UFC career thus far. Throw it all together, and this looks like a toss-up fight that will end with one fighter having looked so much better than the other.

SILVA PREDICTION: STEFAN STRUVE (55.36) OVER LAVAR JOHNSON (50.80)

 

265 lbs: Dave Herman (21-3, 1-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (16-7, 3-3 UFC)

When Chan Sung Jung was set to face Dustin Poirier in the main event of UFC on Fuel 3 a couple weeks ago, I stated that I felt Jung was the most overrated fighter in the UFC. Then Jung made me look like a complete and utter moron. While I’m in full acknowledgement of just how awful my declaration on Jung was, I’m going to double down and risk looking like even more of a moron by saying that Roy Nelson is now the most overrated fighter in the UFC.

Those who follow this blog won’t be surprised by that declaration on my part, but it bears mentioning that Nelson is 3-5 in his last eight fights, was knocked out by Andrei Arlovski and was completely pummeled by all of Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir, and Fabricio Werdum. The dos Santos pummeling is completely forgivable; Mir and Werdum less so. Honestly, Nelson is a fighter with a good ground game and decent punching power, but he’s not a good striker, not a good wrestler, and has poor conditioning. This is one of the top 15 heavyweights in the world? I don’t buy it.

Meanwhile, his opponent will be Dave Herman, a fighter who inexplicably decided he should look like the wolfman in his last fight against Stefan Struve. Thankfully, he won’t be sporting that look this time around, but he does have dynamic striking and is unusually athletic for the heavyweight division. At the same time, his striking defense is generally bad and his conditioning might be worse. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this became an awful fight to watch for the second and third rounds.

SILVA PREDICTION: DAVE HERMAN (66.42) OVER ROY NELSON (39.17)

 

265 lbs: Antonio Silva (16-3, 0-0 UFC) vs. Cain Velasquez (9-1, 7-1 UFC)

I’m not sure how Antonio Silva felt about being offered a change in opponent from “Big Country” Nelson to Cain Velasquez, but it must have been at least a bit daunting for him to think about. Velasquez has extremely quick, powerful boxing, excellent takedowns, and phenomenal conditioning. In many ways, Velasquez is the anti-Nelson. When I break this fight down, I honestly have serious trouble finding out how Silva wins this fight.

Sure, Silva could win by KO, as Velasquez has shown that he has issues when he gets hit. At the same time, Silva’s striking power is overrated, as when he wins by TKO, it’s usually with punches from full mount. And Velasquez is so much faster than Silva that it’s not even funny. Silva is known for being a slow heavyweight, while Velasquez has very quick combinations. Meanwhile, the best part of Silva’s MMA game is his ground game from top position, but is he really going to be able to get Velasquez there? I have trouble envisioning something other than Velasquez crushing Silva in this one.

SILVA PREDICTION: CAIN VELASQUEZ (77.08) OVER ANTONIO SILVA (75.47)

 

265 lbs: Junior dos Santos (14-1, 8-0 UFC) vs. Frank Mir (16-5, 14-5 UFC)

The funny thing about this fight is that there’s a legitimate argument to be made that Frank Mir is the best UFC heavyweight of all time. If that sounds absurd, consider that Mir was at one point the champion, at another the interim champion, and has wins against three of the UFC’s better heavyweights ever in Tim Sylvia, Brock Lesnar, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Add in that Mir has more UFC wins than any heavyweight ever, and you have your case. It can obviously be argued, and in no way are Mir’s credentials comparable to Fedor Emelianenko’s as the best MMA heavyweight of all time, but his accomplishments are quite noteworthy.

And yet, it seems like Mir is being led to the slaughter. Make no mistake about it, Mir has issues in the striking game: all five of his career losses are by KO/TKO. He looked just plain bad in his last four fights, against Nogueira, Roy Nelson, Mirko Cro Cop, and Shane Carwin. With Mir now an 11-year MMA veteran, it definitely seems that he’s on a downward trend as far as his fighting skills are concerned. And his opponent, Junior dos Santos, is easily the best striker in the heavyweight division, with a rare blend of striking volume and knockout power for the sport. A lot of fighters have the volume, and a lot have the power, but few have both quite like dos Santos.

We know what Mir needs to do to win this fight: submit dos Santos. Given Mir’s extensive history of winning by submission, and dos Santos being relatively untested on the ground, it’s a distinct possibility. But then, when I look at dos Santos’s massive advantage in striking, excellent takedown defense, and vastly superior conditioning, the math just doesn’t add up for Mir. Sure, it’s possible that Mir is able to suck dos Santos into a scramble, latch onto an arm, and win by submission. It’s also possible that dos Santos wins by KO within 60 seconds. Let’s not over-think this one… Junior dos Santos is almost certainly going to win by knockout in this fight.

SILVA PREDICTION: JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (87.42) OVER FRANK MIR (72.04)

Statistics vs. Scouting in Mixed Martial Arts

As somebody who enjoys statistical analysis in sports, there are a number of sports websites and blogs I read that have a statistical bent to them. One of these is Bill James Online, the website operated by Bill James himself, the godfather of advanced statistical analysis in baseball. Most of his website can only be accessed with a subscription, but he does make freely available a feature called “Hey Bill,” in which readers ask James random questions about baseball, and James answers them.

One particular question, which is no longer posted on the site, but was there a few weeks ago, asked James about what would happen with baseball if games were played once a week instead of nearly every day. This would obviously cause a lot of dramatic, fundamental changes, but one in particular that James mentioned would happen caught my attention. James said that the value of scouts and scouting would rise in relation to the value of statistics and statisticians, because with dramatically fewer games, there would be much smaller sample sizes to deal with. Take Albert Pujols for example. Pujols currently has a .213 batting average, .248 on-base percentage, and according to Fangraphs, a .240 wOBA (which is terrible) and -0.7 wins above replacement.

At the same time, Pujols has had only 157 plate appearances this season, which means there’s a ton of potential variance with his season’s performance thus far. But what if the 37 games Pujols has played represent an entire season of baseball? Is this really how good Pujols is now, or has he merely been the victim of bad luck or bad variance?

In such a situation, the importance of scouting would become paramount. While in the real world, Pujols will have many more chances to turn his season around, in this imaginary world, scouts would be needed to watch tape of Pujols, break down his stance, swing, and approach, and come to a conclusion about how much his skills have diminished. When we can’t be confident in what statistics are telling us, the best information we can get is what scouts can provide.

This is how I feel about MMA right now. The constant obstacle with statistical analysis in MMA is the small sample sizes people like me have to work with. Think the sample of 157 Pujols plate appearances is small? How about the four takedown attempts of Junior dos Santos? Or the six fights of Matt Mitrione? Heck, what about even the 103 takedown attempts of Georges St-Pierre?

This is why I will never regard SILVA as the be-all or end-all of anything. SILVA estimates how good a fighter is based on his record. From what I’ve seen, SILVA is the best metric at estimating how good fighters are based on this objective data only. It doesn’t mean SILVA can’t be beaten, it just means I think SILVA is the best objective rating system right now. But SILVA is based on a fighter’s last ten fights. Just like everything else in MMA, SILVA has to rely on a small sample of information. Sure, SILVA provides a pretty good estimate most of the time. It has Junior dos Santos as the #1 heavyweight in the world, and Oli Thompson at the bottom of fighters who qualify to be listed right now. On the flip side, it will occasionally do something like rate Mike Russow at #4 at heavyweight.

If you consider SILVA’s objective, its rating of Russow as the #4 heavyweight in the world is defensible. Russow is 10-0 in his last ten fights, which is exceptionally rare at heavyweight, and it includes a few fights in the UFC. Based on statistical data and objective analysis, Russow is an elite heavyweight.

Which is why scouting is so important. I could watch Russow’s fight against Todd Duffee and watch some awful striking on the part of Russow, being treated as a punching bag until landing a KO punch out of nowhere. I could watch Russow’s fight against John Olav Einemo and see Russow grind out a decision against a very low-level UFC opponent. Then I could watch Cain Velasquez demolish opponent after opponent. Velasquez is rated as the #5 heavyweight in the world – one spot below Russow. Bring scouting into the equation, and it becomes abundantly clear that Velasquez is the much better fighter.

I say all this to simply say that while I love statistics and statistical analysis, scouting and tape study have to be part of my analysis and breakdowns of fights. This isn’t to say that SILVA is as good as it’s ever going to be, and I still consider SILVA, Fight Metric, and Fight Matrix to be very useful tools. But as far as analysis of MMA is concerned, that’s all those resources are – tools to be used as part of a larger toolbox.

Measuring Striking Power for UFC Heavyweights

I’ve been thinking a lot about striking recently, and ways to measure striking. There are two main difficulties to deal with: a general lack of information and small sample sizes. I’m hoping the former problem can be solved over time, but the latter problem will always exist, as mixed martial arts is not conducive to large samples.

There are two aspects to striking: volume and power. A fighter with immense power who lands five strikes per fight still isn’t going to score many knockouts. Meanwhile, a fighter who lands strikes all the time but has no power will still give his opponent lots of time to score a KO himself. This post is looking to focus on the power aspect.

The only statistical way I know to measure striking power is to look at strikes landed per knockdown. I would look at fight finishes, but there are all sorts of ways to score a TKO win, and I like to keep things as objective as possible. The lower the strikes landed to knockdowns ratio, the more power a fighter has shown.

The UFC’s website breaks strikes up into three categories: standing, clinch, and ground. I’ve decided to factor out ground strikes, because it’s hard to knock down an opponent who is already on the ground. In this post, strikes landed refers to standing and clinch strikes only.

This specific post will feature the heavyweight division. The UFC only lists fighters currently under contract to their organization, and the striking statistics on each fighter’s page only count strikes landed in UFC fights. That means I won’t be able to list any fighters who haven’t competed in the UFC. Data on knockdowns in this post comes from Fight Metric.

I’m also only listing heavyweights with at least 50 strikes landed. I’d honestly like to make this threshold 200, but then the only fighters who would qualify are Junior dos Santos and Cheick Kongo. Like I said above, small sample sizes are a problem that simply goes along with the nature of the sport of mixed martial arts. This means the following list should be taken with a shaker full of salt.

Here’s the list of heavyweights, listed according to strikes landed per knockdown:

• Brock Lesnar: 17.0 (51 strikes, 3 knockdowns)
• Shane Carwin: 17.5 (70, 4)
• Pat Barry: 20.7 (145, 7)
• Cain Velasquez: 23.7 (142, 6)
• Gabriel Gonzaga: 24.0 (120, 5)
• Mark Hunt: 26.0 (52, 2)
• Frank Mir: 27.7 (166, 6)
• Matt Mitrione: 29.3 (176, 6)
• Brendan Schaub: 31.0 (124, 4)
• Travis Browne: 36.0 (72, 2)
• Junior dos Santos: 38.1 (305, 8)
• Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: 50.3 (151, 3)
• Roy Nelson: 55.0 (110, 2)
• Stipe Miocic: 61.0 (61, 1)
• Mirko Filipovic: 63.0 (189, 3)
• Lavar Johnson: 65.0 (65, 1)
• Stefan Struve: 74.5 (149, 2)
• Dave Herman: 91.0 (91, 1)
• Cheick Kongo: 96.8 (387, 4)
• Shawn Jordan: INF (62, 0)
• Rob Broughton: INF (89, 0)
• Fabricio Werdum: INF (151, 0)

To an extent, the numbers make sense. If you told me that Brock Lesnar, Shane Carwin, and Pat Barry were the three most powerful heavyweight strikers, I would be inclined to agree. They’re followed by Cain Velasquez, which should put to rest the ridiculous notion that he has “pillow fists.”

Champion Junior dos Santos is in the middle of the pack, but since his volume is off the charts, he’s still able to win by KO more often than not. Give a fighter a reasonable chance of scoring a KO with a strike, and a fighter who lands 100 of them or more over 15 minutes is more likely than not to get that KO.

The biggest surprise to me is Cheick Kongo, but a lot of Kongo’s strikes landed are with knees in the clinch. Even so, he may not have nearly the power that a lot of fans might perceive him to have. In 16 UFC fights, Kongo has knocked his opponent down just four times.

In any event, the list above is interesting to look at, and does at least make sense on the surface. I’ll look into the other weight classes and see if this method of estimating striking power holds up.

SILVA Update: UFC on Fox

Here are the new SILVA scores for the participants of the UFC on Fox show:

• Junior dos Santos: 87.42
• Ben Henderson: 84.39
• Cain Velasquez: 77.08
• Ricardo Lamas: 73.02
• Mike Pierce: 70.42
• Clay Guida: 65.41
• Dustin Poirier: 58.85
• Aaron Rosa: 53.81
• Cub Swanson: 46.90
• Norifumi Yamamoto: 44.20
• Pablo Garza: 43.64
• Paul Bradley: 43.40
• DaMarques Johnson: 38.39
• Cole Escovedo: 37.69
• Robert Peralta: 31.85
• Matt Lucas: 21.45
• Darren Uyenoyama: 20.68
• Clay Harvison: 20.21
• Mackens Semerzier: 7.80
• Alex Caceres: N/A

Despite beating Cole Escovedo in convincing fashion, Alex Caceres still does not qualify for a SILVA score. This is because the requirement for being given a SILVA score is having at least two wins against opponents with at least five career fights. Caceres may now have a career MMA record of 6-4, but the win over Escovedo was his first against an opponent with at least five fights worth of experience.

I do have to give Caceres respect. I’ve been bashing him, and bashing the UFC for giving him another chance to fight, but he actually delivered a very good performance against the veteran fighter in Escovedo. This doesn’t mean that I’ll consider Caceres to be one of the better bantamweights in the UFC; it simply means that I’ll try to give him credit for the skills he has shown in my future previews of his fights.

While SILVA predicted Junior dos Santos to beat Cain Velasquez, I never expected that he would do it in as short a time period as 64 seconds. There were two big concerns people had with Velasquez: one, that he showed a tendency to get hit hard in the Cheick Kongo fight, and two, that he had a relatively long layoff since his last fight, including a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. I don’t know, and won’t know, the effects of the layoff, but the first concern seemed to be validated, as dos Santos crushed Velasquez with a right hook to the ear. At this point, it’s hard to say if this is a result of poor striking fundamentals on the part of Velasquez, or if Junior dos Santos is just that good.

Ben Henderson is now the #2 lightweight in the world according to SILVA, and I’m very happy that he’ll be getting the next shot at the lightweight title against Frank Edgar. Right now, Edgar is the #1 lightweight and will be SILVA’s pick to win the fight, but Henderson has a blend of powerful wrestling and effective striking that will make him a very formidable opponent. I’m also thrilled that Henderson won, because let’s face it: after I wrote a whole post joking that I had created Henderson to be the anti-Guida, it would have looked really bad if he lost.

The two biggest underdogs on the card, both by the betting lines and according to SILVA, were Alex Caceres and Darren Uyenoyama. Both of them won their respective fights. It’s very much worth noting that Cole Escovedo and Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto have each been competing in professional MMA for ten years now. For those who are unfamiliar with my past work, I wrote a piece on Fight Opinion documenting the tendency of fighters who have been competing for at least nine years to decline, and sometimes collapse. In the near future, I’ll be taking a look at how such fighters have fared in the UFC in 2011.

SILVA 1.1 was 7-3 predicting UFC on Fox fights, and is now 15-5 since its unveiling prior to UFC 138. I fully anticipate that I will continue to update the new SILVA’s performance until it no longer looks good, at which point I will immediately stop talking about it.

SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fox

Preliminary Fights on Facebook and Foxsports.com – 4:45 ET/1:45 PT

• 205 lbs: Aaron Rosa (46.22) over Matt Lucas (41.11)
• 170 lbs: Mike Pierce (70.03) over Paul Bradley (43.11)
• 135 lbs: Cole Escovedo (47.63) over Alex Caceres (N/A)
• 145 lbs: Robert Peralta (27.80) over Mackens Semerzier (12.72)
• 135 lbs: Norifumi Yamamoto (50.71) over Darren Uyenoyama (-1.10)
• 170 lbs: DaMarques Johnson (38.01) over Clay Harvison (28.01)
• 145 lbs: Ricardo Lamas (72.00) over Cub Swanson (52.85)
• 145 lbs: Pablo Garza (48.43) over Dustin Poirier (45.53)
• 155 lbs: Ben Henderson (83.31) over Clay Guida (65.32)

UFC heavyweight championship on FOX – 9:00 ET/6:00 PT

• 265 lbs: Junior dos Santos (84.30) over Cain Velasquez (82.88)

 

Summary

If this was a pay-per-view event, it would be very mediocre, but as a completely free show, it’s outstanding. I can’t think of any fight that would be better to broadcast on Fox than the heavyweight championship fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. As for the prelims, Henderson-Guida is the only big fight, but I would also keep an eye on Mike Pierce and Ricardo Lamas, who I feel are very underrated fighters. Also watch out for “Kid” Yamamoto, who I think has gone from being overrated to underrated.

The big underdog pick of the card

Pablo Garza is about a 5-2 underdog against Dustin Poirier, but is SILVA’s pick to win the fight. I think the betting lines may be reflective of Poirier being overrated because of his UFC 125 win against Josh Grispi. Also note that Junior dos Santos, a 3-2 underdog, is the pick to win the main event on Fox. dos Santos opened at almost even odds against Cain Velasquez, but the lines have shifted towards Velasquez.

UFC on Fox Preview: Junior dos Santos vs. Cain Velasquez

Not only is it thrilling to get a heavyweight championship fight on Fox, but Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos are (in the opinion of most) the clear top two heavyweights in the world. This is a true championship fight, between fighters who are fun to watch, aggressive, and well-rounded. To appreciate the rarity of this event, a #1 vs. #2 championship, consider the history of the heavyweight division. For many years, the #1 heavyweight in the sport was Fedor Emelianenko, and rightly so, but it can’t be said that Emelianenko regularly fought the #2 heavyweight. He fought Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira twice, and he fought Mirko Cro Cop, but that’s about it. In Emelianenko’s defense, after he beat Nogueira and Cro Cop, those fighters generally remained in the top three.

SILVA 1.0 loved Cain Velasquez, to the point of assigning him the second-highest SILVA score in the sport, behind Georges St-Pierre. It liked Junior dos Santos too, but still had him behind Daniel Cormier and Matt Mitrione, which makes me very glad that I’ve moved on to SILVA 1.1. So I’ve been telling everybody who will listen that my pick to win this fight is the defending champion, Velasquez.

Just one problem… SILVA 1.1 has dos Santos rated as the world’s top heavyweight, with Velasquez as #2. Woops.

One thing we know for sure is that Velasquez will be absolutely relentless. When Velasquez fought Brock Lesnar to win the title, he immediately got in Lesnar’s face, started throwing bombs, mixed in a takedown, and while Lesnar tried to keep up with Velasquez for a short while, he got beaten up in short order. That’s Velasquez’s style in all of his fights. He moves forward, does NOT move backward, throws punches with extremely high volume and good power, lands takedowns, and then continues the barrage on the ground. This is reflected in Velasquez’s record:

• Win – Jesse Fujarczyk – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Jeremiah Constant – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Brad Morris – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Jake O’Brien – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Denis Stojnic – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Cheick Kongo – Decision (Unanimous)
• Win – Ben Rothwell – TKO (Punches)
• Win – Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira – KO (Punches)
• Win – Brock Lesnar – TKO (Punches)

What happened in the Kongo fight? Well, according to Fight Metric, Velasquez only landed 261 punches in that fight. So there you go.

If Velasquez has shown a weakness, and it’s a very big “if,” it’s his striking defense, as Kongo hit Velasquez very hard a couple times, and Lesnar was threatening to really hurt Velasquez for a moment in their fight. But in the big picture, those are very fleeting moments in a career that has otherwise been completely dominated by Velasquez.

Still, if that is a weakness, then there’s nobody in the UFC heavyweight division better suited to take advantage of it than Junior dos Santos. dos Santos is an excellent boxer, and throws strikes with great power, finishing off Gabriel Gonzaga, Gilbert Yvel, Stefan Struve, and Fabricio Werdum in short order. When dos Santos doesn’t get the knockout blow, he still bludgeons his opponents, beating down Mirko Cro Cop and making him quit, crushing Roy Nelson, and giving Shane Carwin a good whooping. dos Santos hasn’t finished his opponents quite like Velasquez has, but he’s done extremely well regardless.

The great thing about previewing this fight is how predictable both men are. We know what Cain Velasquez wants to do: throw a steady barrage of punches, mix in some takedowns, and then clobber the opponent on the ground. We also know what Junior dos Santos wants to do: keep the fight standing and out-box his opponent, throwing very heavy punches in the process.

I find it particularly useful to look at Fight Metric’s matchup preview for this fight. What you’ll find is a numerical picture of just how dominant each fighter has been:

• Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: Velasquez 7.05, dos Santos 6.79
• Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Velasquez 1.15, dos Santos 1.99
• Takedown Accuracy: Velasquez 72%, dos Santos 75%
• Takedown Defense: Velasquez 88%, dos Santos 83%

The biggest difference is that Velasquez averages about seven takedowns per 15 minutes, while dos Santos rarely attempts takedowns. But when opponents attempt takedowns against dos Santos, they get stuffed routinely.

Basically, if the way these two fight is anything like how they usually fight, they’re going to move forward into the center of the cage, and they’re going to clash. Fists will fly in this one.

SILVA PREDICTION: JUNIOR DOS SANTOS (84.30) OVER CAIN VELASQUEZ (82.88)

So does this mean that I’m picking Junior dos Santos to win the fight? In the official sense, yes, because that’s who SILVA is predicting will win. But if I was being perfectly honest, I wouldn’t even make a prediction. These fighters are both warriors, and it’s extremely difficult to tell how either of them would lose. Even their SILVA scores are very, very close. I would say “flip a coin,” but honestly, don’t even bother doing that. Just sit down on Saturday night, and enjoy the war that these two are going to put on.