Statistics vs. Scouting in Mixed Martial Arts

As somebody who enjoys statistical analysis in sports, there are a number of sports websites and blogs I read that have a statistical bent to them. One of these is Bill James Online, the website operated by Bill James himself, the godfather of advanced statistical analysis in baseball. Most of his website can only be accessed with a subscription, but he does make freely available a feature called “Hey Bill,” in which readers ask James random questions about baseball, and James answers them.

One particular question, which is no longer posted on the site, but was there a few weeks ago, asked James about what would happen with baseball if games were played once a week instead of nearly every day. This would obviously cause a lot of dramatic, fundamental changes, but one in particular that James mentioned would happen caught my attention. James said that the value of scouts and scouting would rise in relation to the value of statistics and statisticians, because with dramatically fewer games, there would be much smaller sample sizes to deal with. Take Albert Pujols for example. Pujols currently has a .213 batting average, .248 on-base percentage, and according to Fangraphs, a .240 wOBA (which is terrible) and -0.7 wins above replacement.

At the same time, Pujols has had only 157 plate appearances this season, which means there’s a ton of potential variance with his season’s performance thus far. But what if the 37 games Pujols has played represent an entire season of baseball? Is this really how good Pujols is now, or has he merely been the victim of bad luck or bad variance?

In such a situation, the importance of scouting would become paramount. While in the real world, Pujols will have many more chances to turn his season around, in this imaginary world, scouts would be needed to watch tape of Pujols, break down his stance, swing, and approach, and come to a conclusion about how much his skills have diminished. When we can’t be confident in what statistics are telling us, the best information we can get is what scouts can provide.

This is how I feel about MMA right now. The constant obstacle with statistical analysis in MMA is the small sample sizes people like me have to work with. Think the sample of 157 Pujols plate appearances is small? How about the four takedown attempts of Junior dos Santos? Or the six fights of Matt Mitrione? Heck, what about even the 103 takedown attempts of Georges St-Pierre?

This is why I will never regard SILVA as the be-all or end-all of anything. SILVA estimates how good a fighter is based on his record. From what I’ve seen, SILVA is the best metric at estimating how good fighters are based on this objective data only. It doesn’t mean SILVA can’t be beaten, it just means I think SILVA is the best objective rating system right now. But SILVA is based on a fighter’s last ten fights. Just like everything else in MMA, SILVA has to rely on a small sample of information. Sure, SILVA provides a pretty good estimate most of the time. It has Junior dos Santos as the #1 heavyweight in the world, and Oli Thompson at the bottom of fighters who qualify to be listed right now. On the flip side, it will occasionally do something like rate Mike Russow at #4 at heavyweight.

If you consider SILVA’s objective, its rating of Russow as the #4 heavyweight in the world is defensible. Russow is 10-0 in his last ten fights, which is exceptionally rare at heavyweight, and it includes a few fights in the UFC. Based on statistical data and objective analysis, Russow is an elite heavyweight.

Which is why scouting is so important. I could watch Russow’s fight against Todd Duffee and watch some awful striking on the part of Russow, being treated as a punching bag until landing a KO punch out of nowhere. I could watch Russow’s fight against John Olav Einemo and see Russow grind out a decision against a very low-level UFC opponent. Then I could watch Cain Velasquez demolish opponent after opponent. Velasquez is rated as the #5 heavyweight in the world – one spot below Russow. Bring scouting into the equation, and it becomes abundantly clear that Velasquez is the much better fighter.

I say all this to simply say that while I love statistics and statistical analysis, scouting and tape study have to be part of my analysis and breakdowns of fights. This isn’t to say that SILVA is as good as it’s ever going to be, and I still consider SILVA, Fight Metric, and Fight Matrix to be very useful tools. But as far as analysis of MMA is concerned, that’s all those resources are – tools to be used as part of a larger toolbox.

UFC on FOX 2 Preview: Preliminary Fights (Part Two)

Here are the previews for the other three preliminary fights, all of which are scheduled to be broadcast on Fuel TV on Saturday:

145 lbs: George Roop vs. Cub Swanson

George Roop is a fighter I’ve had a lot of difficulty evaluating since I started writing about MMA. For a while, I looked at Roop’s poor record and lack of success against tough opponents and continually have been picking against him. That worked pretty well when Mark Hominick knocked him out, but not nearly as well when Roop went to split decision against Hatsu Hioki, and was a total disaster when Roop pummeled Josh Grispi. I’m sorry, but it’s really hard for me to get enthusiastic about a fighter who is a career 5-8-1 against experienced opponents (experienced meaning at least five fights).

His opponent, Cub Swanson, has enjoyed a better record than that, but doesn’t exactly have a record that will blow you away either. In his recent career, Swanson has fallen into a pattern of beating somebody like Mackens Semerzier, and following that by losing to Chad Mendes. Either Swanson beats a lower-level opponent, or he loses to an elite opponent. One thing Swanson has going for him is that, according to Fight Metric, he’s out-struck all of his opponents not named Jose Aldo.

SILVA PREDICTION: CUB SWANSON (46.90) OVER GEORGE ROOP (25.28)

I favor Swanson to win here, but given Roop’s last couple fights, I don’t expect him to be an easy opponent for Swanson in the least. If anything, I expect a back and forth battle that may well go to split decision, unless Swanson is able to take Roop down consistently, but even then, Roop is hard to stifle on the ground. The only safe thing I can say is that this is a closer fight than SILVA suggests.

265 lbs: John Olav Einemo vs. Mike Russow

I think the UFC put this fight together for the sole purpose of laughing at SILVA scores. SILVA likes Mike Russow a lot, giving him a SILVA score of 72.96 on the strength of a 10-fight winning streak. However, on the surface, it’s really, really hard to think that Mike Russow is better than fighters like Fedor Emelianenko or Shane Carwin. It just doesn’t feel right. Maybe that’s because Russow didn’t look all that great in beating Jon Madsen, and looked awful before scoring a sudden KO of Todd Duffee. SILVA is not the end-all or be-all of anything, and Russow’s underlying performances seem to contradict SILVA’s enthusiasm.

Then there’s John Olav Einemo, who is a perfect example of the kind of fighter SILVA was never designed to measure. When Einemo took on Dave Herman at UFC 131, it was his first professional MMA fight in five years. I’ve processed Einemo’s SILVA score anyway, but it’s hard to put a whole lot of faith in it. While Einemo has no success against UFC-level opposition in his career, he does bring world-class grappling credentials to the table, and he did have some success striking against Herman in his last fight.

SILVA PREDICTION: MIKE RUSSOW (72.96) OVER JOHN OLAV EINEMO (33.17)

I almost didn’t want to even share the SILVA scores of these two fighters. Just ignore the SILVA scores completely, and brace for what figures to be a very, very sloppy fight.

155 lbs: Evan Dunham vs. Nik Lentz

This one makes me kind of sad, because it was originally supposed to be Paul Sass taking on Evan Dunham, and those who have read my blog regularly know all about how much I’ve been promoting Sass as a fighter to watch out for. Still, Nik Lentz is not a bad replacement at all. While Lentz isn’t always the most exciting fighter to watch, he does have a 5-1-1 UFC record, which means he should provide a very respectable challenge to Dunham.

Of course, for Lentz, success often stems from a fighting style widely derided as boring, as he often will press his opponent against the fence and work for takedowns. Dunham would be well advised to therefore try to maintain striking distance with Lentz, and make it a kickboxing match as much as possible, because Dunham is just plain better at that.

SILVA PREDICTION: EVAN DUNHAM (69.55) OVER NIK LENTZ (64.22)

I’m seeing Dunham listed as a 7-2 favorite, and I think that’s going overboard a bit. I think Dunham is the better fighter overall, but if Lentz can suck Dunham into his game of clinching, dirty boxing, and ground work, Lentz could very well pull off the upset. I’m still going to take Dunham to win, because not only do I consider Dunham a better striker than Lentz, I think Dunham can more than hold his own on the ground as well. Just watch out for that clinch.