SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fuel 2

And heeeeeeeeeere they are:

The thing I have to note is that SILVA really isn’t giving a good reading on Magnus Cedenblad. SILVA throws out all fights against opponents with fewer than five professional fights, because such fighters simply don’t have enough information to make objective judgments about. The problem with Cedenblad is that all three of his losses are to opponents with fewer than five fights, so all three losses are thrown out by SILVA. This is very unusual, and results in an artificially inflated SILVA score for Cedenblad. I regard Francis Carmont as the favorite to win their fight.

UFC on Fuel 2 Preview: Preliminary Fights (Part Two)

Here is the second half of the fight previews for the preliminary fights on UFC on Fuel 2.

 

205 lbs: Tom DeBlass (7-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Cyrille Diabate (17-8-1, 2-2 UFC)

Originally set to fight Swedish Muay Thai fighter Jorgen Kruth, Cyrille “The Snake” Diabate will now be taking on a very different opponent in New Jersey-based Jiu-Jitsu fighter Tom DeBlass. DeBlass will be making his UFC debut in this fight, and his 7-0 record is a relatively strong one, as all seven fights have been against opponents with significant professional MMA experience. DeBlass is the kind of fighter Diabate definitely doesn’t want to face at this point of his career. As a fighter who operates his own Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu school in New Jersey, and is associated with Ricardo Almeida, DeBlass is all about the ground game.

Diabate, on the other hand, is all about the striking game. A legitimately good Muay Thai fighter, Diabate is somebody that even fighters like Mauricio “Shogun” Rua felt compelled to take down to win. While Diabate doesn’t have the best striking power in the sport, he is a very tough guy to go toe-to-toe against. Diabate’s problem is that he’s more of a Muay Thai fighter than he is a mixed martial artist. In his last fight, Anthony Perosh was able to take him to the ground and just overwhelm him. We’ve seen that from Perosh on more than one occasion, but we’ve also seen Diabate get overwhelmed on the ground on more than one occasion.

SILVA PREDICTION: TOM DEBLASS (51.59) OVER CYRILLE DIABATE (44.40)

Not only is DeBlass a legitimate light-heavyweight prospect, but he has exactly the right skill set to beat “The Snake” in this fight. The prognosis is simple: the longer it stays standing, the better off Diabate is, and the longer it stays on the ground, the more the fight favors Tom DeBlass. I think DeBlass has what it takes to win his UFC debut.

 

170 lbs: Papy Abedi (8-1, 0-1 UFC) vs. James Head (7-2, 0-1 UFC)

Swedish striker Papy Abedi is regarded by many to be a very good prospect in the welterweight division. Along with being a fighter who likes to stand and strike, Abedi has experience in submission wrestling, so he has a fairly well-rounded skill set. Unfortunately for Abedi, the UFC decided a good debut opponent for him would be Thiago Alves. Abedi was competitive in the fight, but it was Alves who scored the first-round knockout.

Joe Silva has found a much more appropriate opponent for Abedi this time around in James Head, who had a very sloppy fight against Nick Ring at UFC 131 last June. Head was fairly strong in the first round, landing a number of strikes and even knocking Ring down, but afterwards was completely gassed out and in survival mode. Like Abedi, Head appears to be a striker more than anything.

SILVA PREDICTION: PAPY ABEDI (39.37) OVER JAMES HEAD (18.45)

Head may be known for scoring an upset win over Gerald Harris earlier in his career, but SILVA doesn’t like him at all. In this fight, I don’t really like him either. Papy Abedi figures to be the better, more powerful striker, and probably better in the other areas of the MMA game as well. I like Abedi to win this fight, and probably by KO or TKO.

 

135 lbs: Damacio Page (15-6, 0-1 UFC) vs. Brad Pickett (20-6, 0-1 UFC)

This fight features two bantamweights who are probably one step below title contention in the UFC. It also features fighters who have been quite inactive lately. Brad Pickett didn’t even fight in the UFC until November of last year after having fought in the WEC, and Damacio Page hasn’t fought since March 2011, where he lost by first-round submission to Brian Bowles.

Naturally, these guys should both be chomping at the bit to get a UFC win, and in a number of ways, their records are similar. Both have a win against a very highly ranked fighter; Page has beaten Scott Jorgensen, and Pickett has beaten Demetrious Johnson. Both have two recent losses to very good fighters; Page has lost to Bowles and Johnson, while Pickett lost to Renan Barao and Jorgensen.

Pickett is known as being a good striker, but this is not supported by Fight Metric numbers. More than anything, it appears that Pickett needs to land takedowns to bail himself out and win decisions. Meanwhile, Damacio Page is a fighter who seems to have difficulty scoring points, as he has yet to land more than 20 significant strikes in a fight tracked by Fight Metric.

SILVA PREDICTION: BRAD PICKETT (54.64) OVER DAMACIO PAGE (32.58)

Page is a better fighter than SILVA gives him credit for, but I do agree with his being an underdog against Brad Pickett. If this is a standing battle, it’s likely to be somewhat even, but the difference is the often overlooked wrestling ability of Pickett. I see Pickett landing enough strikes and takedowns to win a decision in this one.

 

 

170 lbs: DaMarques Johnson (15-9, 4-3 UFC) vs. John Maguire (17-3, 1-0 UFC)

I have to give DaMarques Johnson credit. He might have had the best record entering the UFC, and he might not have the most talent in the UFC, but when he fights, he goes for it. Johnson has only gone to decision three times in his MMA career, and he has yet to go to decision in the UFC. He’s not a particularly good striker, but that doesn’t stop him from mixing it up. He does have some wrestling and grappling ability, and with seven career submission wins, the best place for Johnson to fight is almost certainly on the ground.

The problem with Johnson is his UFC career. His wins in the UFC have been against Clay Harvison, Michael Guymon, Brad Blackburn, and Edgar Garcia. I apologize if I don’t see that as a star-studded lineup of victories. Meanwhile, John Maguire, Johnson’s opponent on Saturday, defeated Justin Edwards in his debut at UFC 138, but otherwise, his quality of victories is not much different than Johnson. The difference is that Maguire wins a lot more consistently, with a record of 17-3 to be compared to Johnson’s 15-9.

SILVA PREDICTION: JOHN MAGUIRE (51.12) OVER DAMARQUES JOHNSON (38.39)

To make matters worse for Johnson, I identified the ground game as his biggest strength as a fighter, but that’s also Maguire’s strength as a fighter. Since Maguire has the better record, the better SILVA score, and is the betting favorite to win, everything points to him being the better fighter in this one.

SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fox

Preliminary Fights on Facebook and Foxsports.com – 4:45 ET/1:45 PT

• 205 lbs: Aaron Rosa (46.22) over Matt Lucas (41.11)
• 170 lbs: Mike Pierce (70.03) over Paul Bradley (43.11)
• 135 lbs: Cole Escovedo (47.63) over Alex Caceres (N/A)
• 145 lbs: Robert Peralta (27.80) over Mackens Semerzier (12.72)
• 135 lbs: Norifumi Yamamoto (50.71) over Darren Uyenoyama (-1.10)
• 170 lbs: DaMarques Johnson (38.01) over Clay Harvison (28.01)
• 145 lbs: Ricardo Lamas (72.00) over Cub Swanson (52.85)
• 145 lbs: Pablo Garza (48.43) over Dustin Poirier (45.53)
• 155 lbs: Ben Henderson (83.31) over Clay Guida (65.32)

UFC heavyweight championship on FOX – 9:00 ET/6:00 PT

• 265 lbs: Junior dos Santos (84.30) over Cain Velasquez (82.88)

 

Summary

If this was a pay-per-view event, it would be very mediocre, but as a completely free show, it’s outstanding. I can’t think of any fight that would be better to broadcast on Fox than the heavyweight championship fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. As for the prelims, Henderson-Guida is the only big fight, but I would also keep an eye on Mike Pierce and Ricardo Lamas, who I feel are very underrated fighters. Also watch out for “Kid” Yamamoto, who I think has gone from being overrated to underrated.

The big underdog pick of the card

Pablo Garza is about a 5-2 underdog against Dustin Poirier, but is SILVA’s pick to win the fight. I think the betting lines may be reflective of Poirier being overrated because of his UFC 125 win against Josh Grispi. Also note that Junior dos Santos, a 3-2 underdog, is the pick to win the main event on Fox. dos Santos opened at almost even odds against Cain Velasquez, but the lines have shifted towards Velasquez.

UFC on Fox Preview: Clay Harvison vs. DaMarques Johnson

The sixth fight of the nine-fight preliminary card on Saturday will be a welterweight match between two Ultimate Fighter competitors, Clay Harvison and DaMarques Johnson. Neither fighter has been able to put together much momentum in the UFC. Johnson is 3-3 in the UFC, and has been fighting at a relatively low level in the welterweight division, beating Edgar Garcia, Brad Blackburn, and Michael Guymon, while losing to James Wilks, Matt Riddle, and Amir Sadollah. Harvison, on the other hand, is 1-1 in the UFC, winning a split decision against Justin Edwards, and then losing in a one-sided beatdown at the hands of Seth Baczynski.

While the sport of MMA has evolved to the point at which any aspiring high-level participant needs to be at least proficient in all areas, it’s still important to be particularly good in one of them. Georges St-Pierre dictates where fights take place with his wrestling. Anderson Silva is an amazing striker. Fighters like Demian Maia and Fabricio Werdum are in the second tier of their respective weight classes, using world-class jiu-jitsu as their base. It’s very easy to write fight previews featuring fighters like these, because it’s usually very clear what they and their opponents want to do.

With DaMarques Johnson and Clay Harvison, it’s a lot harder, because they don’t seem to have special talent in any one area. Sure, they’re proficient in all of them, but they don’t seem to have any specialty going for them. What are these guys best at? Striking? It’s honestly hard to tell.

Johnson in particular has a nasty habit of being out-struck by his opponents. In fact, according to Fight Metric, Johnson has managed to win the significant strike battle in the UFC exactly once… when he landed two strikes against Michael Guymon’s one. None of Johnson’s UFC fights have gone to decision, as he has two submission wins and one win by TKO, but has lost once by submission, once by TKO, and once by submission due to strikes. I’d suggest that Harvison’s best chance to win would be to take Johnson to the ground and start throwing strikes, as Johnson has given up 12 takedowns in his UFC career.

The problem is that Harvison hasn’t really shown much wrestling; in fact, he was taken down seven times by Justin Edwards in his professional UFC debut. Really, the only sustained offense we’ve seen from Harvison was when he took advantage of a very fatigued Justin Edwards to land a number of strikes.

SILVA PREDICTION: DAMARQUES JOHNSON (38.01) OVER CLAY HARVISON (28.01)

If this fight is a striking match, I anticipate it will be somewhat even. If either fighter takes the other to the ground, that fighter should have the advantage. Johnson is the pick to win, because he does have a little more of a successful fight history than Harvison does, but it would take some sugar-coating to say this is anything more than a low-level UFC welterweight fight.