SILVA Predictions for UFC on Fox

Preliminary Fights on Facebook and Foxsports.com – 4:45 ET/1:45 PT

• 205 lbs: Aaron Rosa (46.22) over Matt Lucas (41.11)
• 170 lbs: Mike Pierce (70.03) over Paul Bradley (43.11)
• 135 lbs: Cole Escovedo (47.63) over Alex Caceres (N/A)
• 145 lbs: Robert Peralta (27.80) over Mackens Semerzier (12.72)
• 135 lbs: Norifumi Yamamoto (50.71) over Darren Uyenoyama (-1.10)
• 170 lbs: DaMarques Johnson (38.01) over Clay Harvison (28.01)
• 145 lbs: Ricardo Lamas (72.00) over Cub Swanson (52.85)
• 145 lbs: Pablo Garza (48.43) over Dustin Poirier (45.53)
• 155 lbs: Ben Henderson (83.31) over Clay Guida (65.32)

UFC heavyweight championship on FOX – 9:00 ET/6:00 PT

• 265 lbs: Junior dos Santos (84.30) over Cain Velasquez (82.88)

 

Summary

If this was a pay-per-view event, it would be very mediocre, but as a completely free show, it’s outstanding. I can’t think of any fight that would be better to broadcast on Fox than the heavyweight championship fight between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. As for the prelims, Henderson-Guida is the only big fight, but I would also keep an eye on Mike Pierce and Ricardo Lamas, who I feel are very underrated fighters. Also watch out for “Kid” Yamamoto, who I think has gone from being overrated to underrated.

The big underdog pick of the card

Pablo Garza is about a 5-2 underdog against Dustin Poirier, but is SILVA’s pick to win the fight. I think the betting lines may be reflective of Poirier being overrated because of his UFC 125 win against Josh Grispi. Also note that Junior dos Santos, a 3-2 underdog, is the pick to win the main event on Fox. dos Santos opened at almost even odds against Cain Velasquez, but the lines have shifted towards Velasquez.