UFC 172 Predictions Summary

For this event I like:

• Jon Jones over Glover Teixeira
• Phil Davis over Anthony Johnson
• Luke Rockhold over Tim Boetsch
• Yancy Medeiros over Jim Miller
• Andre Fili over Max Holloway
• Joseph Benavidez over Tim Elliott
• Takanori Gomi over Isaac Vallie-Flagg
• Jessamyn Duke over Bethe Correia
• Danny Castillo over Charlie Brenneman
• Chris Beal over Patrick Williams

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 10-3 (76.9%)

Year to Date: 94-47 (66.7%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$0.70

Current Bankroll: $56.21

Total Investment: $134.57

Total Return: $6.21

Return on Investment: 4.6%

Last time I made bets on four underdogs. The great thing about doing this is the underdogs only need to go 2-2 for me to profit… which is exactly what they did. Donald Cerrone +120 and Yoel Romero +125 were winners while Rafael Dos Anjos +195 and Pat Healy +200 were not. The result was a profit of a cool 70 cents.

I liked that approach so much that I’m doing it again for this event.

For this event I have:

Anthony Johnson +185: $2.00 to win $3.70 – I favor Davis to win but only by a narrow margin. If Johnson can keep this fight standing then I think his power will be too much for Davis to handle.

Yancy Medeiros +180: $2.00 to win $3.60

Tim Elliott +340: $1.00 to win $3.40 as I feel Elliott can make it a very tough fight against Joe Benavidez.

Tim Boetsch +700: $0.50 to win $3.50 – I will probably lose 50 cents here, but this line is just disrespectful.

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!

FPR Update – 10/29

Fighter Performance Ratings on this blog have been updated for all UFC fighters. They can be accessed via the links on the sidebar.

Here are some quick notes from the update:

–Cain Velasquez goes down to +17.35 because he was a little less dominant than normal against Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez still has easily the highest FPR in the UFC. Between that performance by Velasquez and Jon Jones‘ struggles against Alexander Gustafsson, there aren’t too many people calling for Jones to challenge for the heavyweight title these days. That is as it should be.

–Lyoto Machida checks in at middleweight as the second-best fighter in the division according to FPR. Machida trails only Chris Weidman and is well ahead of Anderson Silva. The obvious match to make if Weidman beats Silva again is to have him face Machida… assuming Machida can defeat Vitor Belfort or whoever else he’s matched up against next.

-If Jimi Manuwa keeps up his current pace over 60 minutes he’ll have an FPR of +5.46, which would rank 7th at light-heavyweight ahead of Mauricio Rua and behind Ryan Bader. The reason Manuwa’s FPR isn’t that good yet (+1.07) is because I’ve designed FPR to make a fighter “prove it.” In other words, prove you’re that good on a consistent basis. I think the jury is still out on Manuwa as a potential top 10 fighter at 205 pounds.

-Here is the FPR of every fighter from TUF 15 who is still in the UFC:

• Myles Jury +2.70
• Al Iaquinta +0.27
• Daron Cruickshank +0.27
• James Vick -1.98
• Jon Tuck -2.03
• James Krause -2.09
• Jeremy Larsen -2.52
• Joe Proctor -2.93

So far it looks like Jury, Iaquinta, and Cruickshank are the mainstays from that season. James Vick could easily join them as he’s only fought in the UFC for one minute so far. I still think Jury has the highest upside of the group.

Why Alexander Gustafsson Is Jon Jones’ Most Dangerous Challenger Yet

Better late than never! Up now at JasonSomerville.com is my explanation of why Alexander Gustafsson is the most dangerous opponent Jon Jones has faced yet. That’s right, more dangerous than Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida, Quinton Jackson, or Mauricio Rua. Just click the link and you’ll find out what makes Gustafsson such an underrated fighter.

 

UFC 165 Predictions Summary

I’ll have a write-up on the main event between Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson up at JasonSomerville.com tomorrow. For now, you’ll have to forgive me for spoiling who I’m picking to win that fight. I’m sure it will be a huge shock to everybody.

 

Yes, I have Jon Jones winning tomorrow… but only at an estimated 71 percent chance of winning. Alexander Gustafsson is a tougher challenger than most people are giving him credit for, and I’ll explain why that is tomorrow.

Underdog picks for this event include Wilson Reis, Mitch Gagnon, and maybe Brendan Schaub… Schaub is phasing in and out of being the underdog against Matt Mitrione. FPR hates Menjivar and only gives him a 17% chance to beat Reis, but the confidence level of that prediction is “very low” for a reason.

Enjoy the fights!

UFC 159 Post-Fight Analysis

UFC 159 will go down as one of the most bizarre UFC events of all time. There were a lot of eye pokes, a lot of injuries, and a lot of very strange happenings. What there weren’t a lot of were entertaining fights. I feel bad for anybody who paid good money to attend the event, because they didn’t get their money’s worth tonight.

Hopefully this will end the idea that fight cards that look bad on paper will be entertaining in practice. Whether or not a card is entertaining is basically random. For every UFC 108 that turned out to be a great night of fights, there’s an event like UFC 149 which falls flat.

-The only thing I liked about the fight between Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen was the fact that Sonnen was going to go right after Jones from the beginning. He did that, Jones took him down easily, and Sonnen had little to offer from his back. Hopefully we’ve seen the end of Jones fighting middleweights who have very little chance to beat him.

-Of course, now Jones has a nasty injury to deal with and heal from before we see him fight again. That’s another reason the fight with Sonnen should not have been made. Great champions like Jones won’t be around forever. Too much of his career was wasted with the build-up and fight with Sonnen, when it could have been spent matching Jones against a better opponent.

–Alan Belcher has porous striking defense, and it was exposed by Michael Bisping. Belcher’s hands are all over the place and he doesn’t move his head, which is a recipe for getting hit a lot. A great example of Belcher having poor defense was his UFC 100 fight against Yoshihiro Akiyama – Akiyama is no master striker, but was still able to tag Belcher repeatedly in their fight. Against a much better volume striker in Bisping, there was no way Belcher wasn’t going to get hit a lot.

-I really hope Belcher is OK, that eye poke late in the third round was brutal.

-What can I say about Roy Nelson? He has a devastating overhand right that knocks people unconscious. I would still pick against him in a heartbeat against just almost any top ten heavyweight, but he’ll always be dangerous because of that KO power. Sometimes, I’m wrong about a fighter enough times that I have no choice but to respect him, and Nelson earned my respect (although I did ultimately pick Nelson to beat Cheick Kongo).

–Phil Davis isn’t going to win the K-1 World Grand Prix any time soon, but what he does well is throw a lot of straight punches. This is something I’d recommend to anybody who isn’t a polished striker – straight punches land at a fairly high percentage, and keep the opponent at distance, which aids in defending takedowns as well. Vinny Magalhaes was aggressive early in the fight, but as the fight went on, it was clear he had no idea what to do about Davis’s skill set.

-I thought Jim Miller’s lack of takedown defense would be problematic for him against Pat Healy, but the real problem in the fight was his conditioning. Miller was exhausted in the second round, and that allowed Healy to apply his smothering, grinding style, and eventually win by choking Miller unconscious. To be sure, a lot of that is because of Healy’s style, but at the same time, if Miller aspires to be a UFC champion, he needs to have better cardio than that.

-I was so excited to see Yancy Medeiros compete against Rustam Khabilov, because after watching Medeiros compete against Gareth Joseph three years ago, I really liked him as a potential star in the UFC. Unfortunately, after Medeiros looked impressive early, he broke his thumb and the fight was over. It’s a shame, but hopefully the injury isn’t too severe and we can see Medeiros compete again before too long.

-With that said, Medeiros looked like a completely different person at lightweight. Seriously, he used to be a thick (fat) middleweight, now he’s a lean lightweight. That’s not a transformation often seen in MMA.

-I’m hardly the first person to say this, but Gian Villante getting poked in the eye is a perfect example of why eye pokes should come with a five minute period to recover, just like strikes to the groin. Give Villante up to five minutes to recover from the eye poke, and I’m sure he would have been able to continue. With the way the rules are written now, there is no five minute period to recover from an eye poke, and that helps result in debacles like Villante’s fight with Ovince St-Preux going to a technical decision.

-That’s not excusing Kevin Mulhall’s awful decision to stop the fight the way he did. For crying out loud, at least let the doctor in the cage to give his ruling before making such a hasty decision.

-After three minutes of doing very little in Sheila Gaff’s guard, I was afraid we were going to see a pretty boring fight between Gaff and Sara McMann. Thankfully, McMann showed much better offense after her second takedown, easily passing Gaff’s guard, securing a crucifix, and finishing the fight with strikes. With her wrestling background, McMann certainly has the potential to be a champion in the UFC, but I hope she can develop a more well-rounded skill set soon, as her striking leaves a lot to be desired.

-I was really hoping that Johnny Bedford would have an answer for the grappling of Bryan Caraway, but that turned out not to be the case. Bedford entered the fight with a record of 19-10-1, with nine losses by submission. Usually, fighters who enter the UFC with a lot of losses have that record for a reason, and usually, the flaws that led to those losses don’t just go away. Caraway exposed Bedford’s flaws in this fight, and that’s bad news for Bedford’s UFC future.

-If Leonard Garcia gets another fight in the UFC, it’s a travesty. It’s not that I WANT fighters to be out of a job in the UFC, but MMA is a sport, and sports should be at least somewhat merit-based in terms of who gets opportunities to perform. I don’t want to take anything away from Cody McKenzie, who did a great job of controlling Garcia, but there are only so many spots in the UFC, and Garcia should not be taking one of them. Give an up-and-coming fighter with potential an opportunity instead.

–Steven Siler and Kurt Holobaugh were even through two and a half rounds, when Holobaugh decided to try to throw Siler by the head. He failed, Siler took his back, and the fight was over. I don’t understand why fighters go for this technique – it’s a low percentage, high-risk move. Siler has never had good takedown defense, so why go for something fancy, instead of a standard body lock or double-leg takedown? That move cost Holobaugh the fight.

UFC 159 Preview and Predictions

UFC Light-Heavyweight Championship Match (5 rounds)

Jon Jones (17-1, 11-1 UFC) vs. Chael Sonnen (27-12-1, 6-5 UFC)

Given my tendency to be a contrarian when it comes to fight analysis, you might expect me to write at length about how Chael Sonnen could potentially defeat Jon Jones. After all, Jones is a massive 10-1 favorite to win the match. That’s rare enough for any fight in MMA, but for the underdog in this situation to be a fighter as good as Sonnen is just unheard of.

The cold reality for Sonnen is that he wins fights one way – by landing takedowns and dominating from top position on the ground. Sonnen isn’t a knockout artist; his last TKO win was against Kyacey Uscola in 2007. He isn’t a submission master either, as he has only won four fights by submission in his 40 fight career. Instead, Sonnen wins decisions, and since joining the UFC middleweight division, he’s been excellent at it.

Against Jon Jones, Sonnen’s path to victory is the same as it was against Anderson Silva. He needs to take the fight to the ground repeatedly, and score points with strikes while staying out of submissions, eventually winning the fight by decision. And that’s the problem – against Silva, Sonnen was fighting a middleweight with good takedown defense. Against Jones, Sonnen will be fighting a light-heavyweight with outstanding takedown defense – Jones has never been taken down in his MMA career.

Of course, just because Jones hasn’t been taken down doesn’t mean he can’t be taken down. It might not seem ridiculous to suggest that Sonnen could be the first to do so. After all, Sonnen is a very good wrestler who always fights very aggressively, regardless of who his opponent is. If Sonnen shows that same aggression against Jones, perhaps he’ll find a way to land a takedown.

But one takedown won’t be enough. If Sonnen wants to win a decision in this fight, he’ll have to land takedowns in at least three rounds out of five. Not only will Sonnen have to land those takedowns, he’ll have to keep Jones on his back while landing strikes and staying out of submissions. That outcome might be within the realm of possibility, but I’ll be shocked if the fight actually unfolds that way.

To put it bluntly, Jones is the much better striker and grappler, the better wrestler, the bigger fighter, and has better conditioning than Sonnen. The big advantage Sonnen has always had – his ability to dominate the takedown game – won’t exist in this fight. Instead, Sonnen will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat, finding some way to catch Jones with a strike that knocks him out, or putting him in a surprising submission hold. It’s a nearly hopeless situation for him.

I liked the idea of this fight when Sonnen was going to replace Dan Henderson on short notice at UFC 151. I hate the idea of this fight now. Hopefully after Jones finishes Sonnen, he can finally move on to competing against fellow light-heavyweights who genuinely earned their opportunity to face him.

Pick: Jon Jones by submission

 

UFC Middleweight Match (3 rounds)

Alan Belcher (18-7, 9-5 UFC) vs. Michael Bisping (23-5, 13-5 UFC)

Alan Belcher is an overrated fighter in my opinion. I felt that way before his match against Yushin Okami at UFC 155, where Belcher closed as the betting favorite in most spots, and I still feel that way now. Belcher got a lot of hype behind him after winning four fights in a row, but the opponents he beat during that winning streak – Wilson Gouveia, Patrick Cote, Jason MacDonald, and Rousimar Palhares – were all far from the top of the division. Against a tougher opponent in Okami, Belcher landed a couple hard strikes, but otherwise was unable to produce much offense.

Belcher’s flaws are what they always have been – he gets hit too easily, and he doesn’t have particularly good takedown defense. Belcher often throws kicks to the body, and while he’s a hard kicker, these kicks often get caught by his opponents, who use them to take Belcher down.

Against Michael Bisping, Belcher will be facing an opponent who is well equipped to take advantage of Belcher’s weaknesses. Bisping is a very good volume striker who should be able to score a lot of points on Belcher throughout a three-round fight. He also has decent takedowns, and as long as he attempts to get Belcher to the ground, he should be successful at some point.

If this fight goes to decision, it should be with Bisping as the winner, as I cannot imagine Belcher landing more strikes and takedowns throughout the fight. If that is the case, then Belcher will need to finish Bisping if he wants to win. While that’s not unlikely to happen, it’s not enough for me to favor Belcher to win this match.

Pick: Michael Bisping by decision

 

UFC Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Cheick Kongo (18-7-2, 11-5-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (18-7, 5-3 UFC)

Roy Nelson has made a habit out of proving me wrong recently. I felt that Nelson was an overrated heavyweight, and picked both Dave Herman and Matt Mitrione to beat him, based on the idea that those fighters could avoid the early KO and end up winning on points. Well, neither man avoided the early KO; Nelson finished Mitrione in three minutes and Herman in just 51 seconds.

Against Cheick Kongo, I’m very tempted to pick against Nelson again. The idea is that, if Nelson doesn’t win by knockout, he’s almost definitely going to lose by decision. There have been too many times that I’ve seen Nelson reduced to a punching bag later in fights, exhausted and unable to attack effectively. I can definitely see Kongo clinching Nelson to oblivion, landing hard knees to Nelson’s protruding gut.

But at some point, I have to acknowledge that a Nelson KO win might actually be better than a 50-50 possibility. After all, all of Nelson’s five UFC wins have been by KO, and his losses were all to high-level opponents in Junior dos Santos, Frank Mir, and Fabricio Werdum. Meanwhile, Kongo is very old in MMA years, and is known for having a somewhat brittle chin. I hate doing this, and I certainly don’t think Nelson should be a -240 favorite, but…

Pick: Roy Nelson by KO

 

UFC Light-Heavyweight Match (3 rounds)

Phil Davis (10-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (10-5, 1-2 UFC)

This is a very interesting fight, one that will match the dominant wrestling of Davis against the world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of Magalhaes. But unlike many prognosticators on the internet, I don’t think Magalhaes has a very good chance of winning this one. Let’s explore the possibilities…

Magalhaes by KO? I shouldn’t completely dismiss the chances of this happening, as Magalhaes does have two TKO wins on his record. But it will be very  hard for him to win this way against Davis. For one, I don’t think this fight will stay standing for very long. Even if it does, though, Davis always makes it a priority not to get hit. If Magalhaes is reduced to ten significant strikes in the match, the likelihood that one of them is a knockout shot is very low.

Magalhaes by submission? The single most likely way for Magalhaes to win for sure, but to do so, he’ll have to win a grappling match against Davis while operating from bottom position on the ground. If anybody could do it, Magalhaes can, but Davis is no joke from top position. We’ve seen high-level BJJ practitioners get shut down by dominant wrestlers before, and I anticipate that will happen again in this fight.

Magalhaes by decision? I doubt it. Again, Davis will be the fighter landing takedowns and working from top position. For Magalhaes to win on the judges’ scorecards, he’ll need to probably win the ensuing grappling match by an overwhelming margin. It’s possible, but not likely.

By far, the most likely result here is that Davis takes Magalhaes down without too much struggle, and proceeds to control Magalhaes while landing strikes, eventually winning by decision. I’ll be surprised if Magalhaes can stop Davis here.

Pick: Phil Davis by decision

 

UFC Lightweight Match (3 rounds)

Pat Healy (29-16, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jim Miller (22-4, 11-3 UFC)

While I think Jim Miller is definitely a more talented fighter than Pat Healy, I also think Healy could represent a very tough stylistic match for him. Miller definitely has more well-rounded abilities than Healy; he’s the better striker and has much better Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Still, a couple of numbers jumped out at me during my stats breakdown of this fight the other day. One is that Healy attempts 7.9 takedowns per 15 minutes. The other is that Miller only defends 42% of takedowns attempted against him.

Pat Healy is nothing if not consistent. He’s a huge lightweight, and is likely to clinch with Miller and try to take him down. He’ll probably have some success with the takedowns. But where I favor Miller in this fight is that his level of competition has been much higher than Healy’s. While Miller has been facing the likes of Benson Henderson, Gray Maynard, Nate Diaz, and Gleison Tibau, Healy has been facing opponents like Mizuto Hirota and Maximo Blanco. In the end, I think Miller’s talent, particularly on the ground, will be enough for him to get his hand raised in this fight.

Pick: Jim Miller by decision

 

Lightning round for the prelims…

-I know it’s easy to dismiss Yancy Medeiros, but I wouldn’t. Medeiros has good Muay Thai and takedown defense, and I think has a very good chance of winning against Rustam Khabilov. Still, Medeiros is dropping two weight classes and coming off a three-year layoff. I’ll stay smart and pick Khabilov.

-I can’t understand why Gian Villante has had hype behind him in the past, because he has yet to prove himself against good competition. I think Ovince St-Preux will out-strike him and end up winning by decision.

-As long as Sheila Gaff can keep her fight against Sara McMann standing, she has an excellent chance of winning. But let’s be honest, McMann is a world-class wrestler who won’t have much difficulty taking Gaff down. McMann by submission.

-Since I’ve been tempted to pick the underdog a couple times already, I’d feel terrible to go a whole card without picking one. So I’m going to pick Bryan Caraway to beat Johnny Bedford despite taking this fight on very short notice. Bedford is definitely the better striker, but has a history of losing by submission, and I think Caraway is very well-equipped to take advantage of that.

-It seems that a lot of people hate Cody McKenzie for being a one-trick pony in the UFC, but I respect a fighter who can find ways to win despite a lack of talent. With that said… I can’t even find a way to pick McKenzie to beat Leonard Garcia! As long as Garcia stays out of the guillotine choke, he wins this fight. Garcia by TKO.

-I’m sure when Nick Catone decided to move down to the welterweight division, it was with the idea that he would be bigger than his opponents. Against James Head, that won’t be the case. It’s a competitive fight, but I think Head can keep it standing and out-strike Catone.

-I’ve picked Steven Siler to win every UFC fight he’s been in, and after winning his first three fights, he was dominated by Darren Elkins in his last one. I’m going to quit while I’m ahead. Siler’s takedown defense just isn’t good enough to win consistently. Kurt Holobaugh should be able to land takedowns on Siler and win by decision.

UFC 159 Stats Breakdown

Even though MMA is a sport unsuited to statistical analysis on the individual level… I can’t get enough of it! Let’s take a look at the Fight Metric statistics for the fighters set to compete on the main card of UFC 159, and see if we can’t get an idea of how the fights will go.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Championship Match: Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen

• Jones has a significant strike margin of +2.48 per minute, compared to +2.28 for Sonnen.
• Per 15 minutes, Jones lands 2.5 takedowns in 4.0 attempts, while Sonnen lands 3.9 takedowns in 6.6 attempts.
• Sonnen defends his opponent’s takedown attempts 71% of the time, but his takedown defense still can’t hold a candle to Jones, who has never been taken down in an MMA fight.
• Jones will have an 11-inch reach advantage in the fight.

Both fighters here have a huge significant strike margin, but for Sonnen, it’s almost completely because of his ability to take opponents to the ground. It’s hard to imagine Sonnen having consistent success taking Jones down – after all, Sonnen struggled to take down Michael Bisping, whose takedown defense isn’t nearly as good as that of Jones. On the flip side, I do anticipate that Jones could be successful taking Sonnen down. The big advantage Sonnen has in most of his fights is that he’s the better wrestler, but that probably won’t be the case in this championship fight. And if the fight stays standing, I doubt that Sonnen will have much success, since he will have to contend with the exceptionally long reach of Jones.

UFC Middleweight Match: Alan Belcher vs. Michael Bisping

• Bisping has a significant strike margin of +2.01 per minute, compared to +0.08 for Belcher.
• Per 15 minutes, Bisping lands 2.0 takedowns in 4.2 attempts, while Belcher lands 0.5 takedowns in 1.5 attempts.
• Bisping has only attempted one submission since his Ultimate Fighter match against Josh Haynes.
• Belcher defends 55% of his  opponent’s takedown attempts, compared to 62% for Bisping.

As is usually the case, Bisping will probably be the winner if this fight goes to decision. On paper, he’s better than Alan Belcher at both volume striking and takedowns. I’ve said it before – Belcher is a talented fighter offensively, but his striking defense and takedown defense are both deficient. Bisping is a fighter who should be able to take advantage of those deficiencies. Belcher’s best chance of winning is to land a powerful strike and knock Bisping out, but Bisping has only been knocked out twice in his career, against the right hand of Dan Henderson and the head kick of Vitor Belfort. While I respect Belcher’s KO power, it’s hard to argue he packs quite as much power as fighters like Henderson and Belfort. If the statistics are any indication, this fight should be Bisping’s to lose.

UFC Heavyweight Match: Cheick Kongo vs. Roy Nelson

• Kongo has an enormous advantage in significant strike margin: +2.09 for Kongo, -2.36 for Nelson.
• Per 15 minutes, Kongo lands 2.2 takedowns in 3.5 attempts, while Nelson lands just 0.7 takedowns in 3.7 attempts.
• In the fights tracked by Fight Metric, Nelson has scored four knockdowns on 208 significant strikes, for a ratio of 52 significant strikes per knockdown.
• Meanwhile, Kongo has been knocked down three times (twice by Pat Barry) on 232 significant strikes, for a ratio of 77 significant strikes per knockdown.

I know Roy Nelson is a fairly heavy favorite to win this fight… but if he doesn’t win by knockout, it sure looks like he should lose this match. On paper, Cheick Kongo is the much better striker; while Kongo out-paces his opponent by 2.09 significant strikes per minute, Nelson gets hit by almost twice as many significant strikes as he lands. Kongo is also the better wrestler on paper; while Kongo doesn’t have terrific takedown defense, Nelson only lands 19% of his takedown attempts. Yes, Nelson has a great chance of catching Kongo with a big punch and winning by knockout. But is that chance so high that Nelson should be a -240 favorite?

UFC Light-Heavyweight Match: Phil Davis vs. Vinny Magalhaes

• Davis has a significant strike margin of +2.05 per minute, compared to -0.60 for Magalhaes.
• Davis avoids 71% of the significant strikes thrown at him, and only gets hit by 0.94 per minute. Meanwhile, Magalhaes only lands 28% of his significant strike attempts.
• Per 15 minutes, Davis lands 3.2 takedowns in 6.5 attempts, while Magalhaes lands 1.9 takedowns in 3.8 attempts.
• Magalhaes has attempted two submissions in his three UFC fights.

These numbers for Magalhaes should be taken with a grain of salt, because he only has three fights tracked by Fight Metric. Still, the numbers seem to overwhelmingly favor Davis. Davis doesn’t really have developed offensive kickboxing, but he’s one of the best fighters in MMA at avoiding strikes. On paper, he should be the better striker and wrestler than Magalhaes. Now, Magalhaes is well known for being a world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner, but he will likely struggle to apply it against Davis, who is a fantastic grappler himself, and likely to have the top position on the ground. I’ll put it this way – if Magalhaes couldn’t manage to attempt a submission against Eliot Marshall, I doubt he’ll pull it off against Phil Davis.

UFC Lightweight Match: Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy

• Miller has a very narrow edge in significant strike margin: +0.52 for Miller, +0.44 for Healy.
• Per 15 minutes, Miller lands 2.1 takedowns in 4.6 attempts, while Healy lands 3.7 takedowns in 7.9 attempts.
• Healy defends takedowns at a 71% rate, compared to just 42% for Miller.
• Miller attempts a lot of submissions per 15 minutes – 2.8 attempts for Miller, 1.6 attempts for Healy.

While I would give Jim Miller a slight advantage if this fight stays standing, I can’t get past his weak takedown defense. Pat Healy attempts takedowns early and often, and this fight is unlikely to be an exception. Unless Miller can land a takedown first, he’ll have to work from bottom position on the ground. Miller has a terrific Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, so it’s possible he could reverse position on Healy and possibly win by submission, but it’s going to be a battle for him. Right now, Miller is listed as a -320 favorite; if the statistics are any indication, that line is way off and Healy has a much better chance of winning than that. The one thing I will say is that Miller has faced much tougher opponents than Healy, and that might be skewing the numbers in Healy’s favor.

Who I’m Looking Forward To Watching at UFC 159 This Weekend

I have a number of friends who enjoy watching MMA. Any time I ask them which fighters they’re looking forward to watching, they respond with names that you might expect. For this weekend’s card, they might say they’re looking forward to watching Jon Jones and Roy Nelson – or they might say they’re looking forward to watching Chael Sonnen lose. When they ask me the same question, my answer usually just prompts more questions, since I often name some obscure fighter buried on the prelims. Here’s who I’m looking forward to watching at UFC 159 this Saturday:

Jon Jones – One thing I will always appreciate is true greatness in mixed martial arts. I think it’s safe to say that Jones deserves to be mentioned alongside names like Anderson Silva, Georges St-Pierre, and Fedor Emelianenko as fighters who have been truly dominant in the sport. I don’t have the same seething hatred for Chael Sonnen that a lot of people have, but I am looking forward to seeing how Jones will handle the challenge that Sonnen brings to the table. There are a lot of ways Jones can win this fight.

Phil Davis – Davis will be battling Vinny Magalhaes on the main card. While Magalhaes has improved greatly since his run on TUF 8, he’s run into the wrong opponent here in my opinion. Not only is Davis a fantastic wrestler/grappler type, he’s a fighter who is excellent at minimizing his opponent’s offense. I think Davis has top three talent in the light-heavyweight division, and I look forward to seeing him display that talent once again.

Johnny Bedford – A fighter who just mauled both of his first two UFC opponents, scoring TKO wins over Louis Gaudinot and Marcos Vinicius. Bedford is stepping up in competition this time to face Bryan Caraway, and on paper, it’s a very challenging fight for Bedford. Caraway is a very good grappler, a fighter who is excellent at getting his opponent’s back and going for submissions. Since Bedford is 19-9 with eight losses by submission, he’ll have to prove that he’s improved his submission defense. A very interesting fight in my opinion.

Yancy Medeiros – This is the one that would get everybody I know to ask “Who?” When I attended the Strikeforce event featuring Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum, I didn’t know who anybody on the prelims was. The one fighter who stood out there was Medeiros, who displayed very good Muay Thai and takedown defense in a KO win over Gareth Joseph. Since then, I’ve been waiting for Medeiros to fight again, but presumably due to injuries, he never did. Now, almost three years later, Medeiros is in the UFC to take on Rustam Khabilov, who has gained a lot of hype after suplexing Vinc Pichel to oblivion. While I’m sure most hardcore fans are looking forward to watching Khabilov, I’m looking forward to watching the undefeated Medeiros.

The Ultimate Fighter 17 Episode Nine Preview: Kevin Casey vs. Bubba McDaniel

Last week, I expressed happiness at finally getting to see my top-ranked fighter, Zak Cummings, compete on The Ultimate Fighter. Then I saw him fight, and happiness was the last thing I felt. It’s not that I was rooting against Dylan Andrews, his opponent, it’s that I was really hoping to see a good fight out of Cummings. Instead, what we saw was a one-sided fight in which Cummings had no idea what to do when placed on his back. Early in the first round, Cummings looked good, landing a few strikes and attempting a D’Arce choke, but unfortunately for him, that was the most success he had in the fight. While on his back, Cummings made perhaps one or two poor attempts at a sweep, and that was about it. The remainder of the fight consisted of Andrews maintaining top position, landing a few strikes, and doing what he needed to do to win.

My TUF 17 fighter rankings are now a dismal 2-5 actually predicting fights. This is a reflection of two things. First is the dubious idea of using statistics to rate fighters, especially fighters with very little experience in professional MMA. Take a fighter like Jimmy Quinlan for example – Quinlan is just 3-0 in his career. There’s no way that any type of statistical analysis can take such a small sample of fights and come to any confident conclusions. When it comes to MMA, and especially TUF, scouting and tape study are the best ways to evaluate two fighters and how they match up. If I know that Quinlan has excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and Clint Hester is prone to being submitted, that is valuable qualitative analysis that can be a tremendous help in making a fight pick.

The other thing my system’s poor record reflects is the unpredictable nature of TUF. For about four seasons in a row now, my attempts at rating the competitors on the show have been completely futile. In early seasons of TUF, there was an enormous skill gap between the best and worst competitors on the show. For example, you probably don’t need statistics to tell you that Jason Thacker was not going to beat Forrest Griffin or Stephan Bonnar. By contrast, in the last few seasons of TUF, that skill gap has shrunk to the point where every competitor has a legitimate chance of winning the tournament. The result is that statistics alone are no longer enough to know who the true favorites to win TUF are.

Despite what I just said, I’ll post my rankings again anyway:

1. Zak Cummings – 8.022 (Team Sonnen)
2. Uriah Hall – 7.383 (Sonnen)
3. Tor Troeng – 7.348 (Sonnen)
4. Luke Barnatt – 7.127 (Sonnen)
5. Josh Samman – 7.009 (Jones)
6. Dylan Andrews – 6.532 (Jones)
7. Robert McDaniel – 6.421 (Jones)
8. Kevin Casey – 6.234 (Sonnen)
9. Clint Hester – 5.995 (Jones)
10. Gilbert Smith – 5.917 (Jones)
11. Jimmy Quinlan – 5.893 (Sonnen)
12. Kelvin Gastelum – 5.655 (Sonnen)
13. Adam Cella – 5.428 (Jones)
14. Collin Hart – 5.154 (Jones)

I really thought Clint Hester would get a chance to come back in the wild card fight, but that idea went out the window when Dana White decided to simply let the coaches pick who would compete. To represent his team, Chael Sonnen selected Kevin Casey, who was perhaps the least impressive loser of the first round of fights. In fairness, Sonnen’s only other choice was Zak Cummings, who wasn’t exactly impressive in his fight either. To face Casey, Jon Jones chose “Bubba” McDaniel over Hester, explaining that McDaniel has been fighting longer, and was therefore more deserving of the opportunity. Of course, it’s likely that Jones simply decided to do McDaniel a favor, as Jones and McDaniel are training partners in the Greg Jackson/Mike Winkeljohn camp.

Kevin Casey vs. Robert McDaniel

I like to make a distinction between MMA fighters who have good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and BJJ fighters competing in MMA. Casey is a great example of the latter- he has very good BJJ as a student of Rickson Gracie, but is far from having the well-rounded skill set needed to win fights at a high level. Casey’s striking is very rudimentary, and he’s not a particularly good wrestler either – just ask Collin Hart, who was able to take Casey down and completely neutralize his ground game.

Still, Casey is a physically strong fighter, and can be very dangerous early in fights. When Casey gets his opponent to the ground, he’s very good at passing guard and maintaining a dominant position. As a Rickson Gracie student, Casey is the kind of fighter who will emphasize position over submission. He has good fundamentals on the ground, and will methodically advance position and land strikes until his opponent gives Casey the opening he needs to secure a submission hold.

By contrast, McDaniel is a fighter who is very aggressive on the ground, but doesn’t have a polished ground game. McDaniel likes to attack his opponent with submissions from almost any position, but struggles to finish, and often loses position in the process. This lack of polish causes McDaniel to make mistakes on the ground, and while most of his wins are by submission, that’s how he loses most of his fights as well.

That means that McDaniel might be in trouble early in this fight. McDaniel doesn’t have good takedown defense, so I anticipate that Casey will be able to take him to the ground. While there, McDaniel will put up a fight, but Casey should prove to have the better overall grappling. There’s absolutely a chance that Casey submits McDaniel in the first round.

The problem for Casey is that the longer the fight goes, the better it is for McDaniel. McDaniel’s conditioning is far better than Casey’s – while McDaniel can fight for three hard rounds, Casey usually gasses out in the second round. That means that if Casey doesn’t get the early submission finish against McDaniel, he’s going to be in big trouble, because I expect Casey to get exhausted early, while McDaniel will still be fresh. If that happens, I expect McDaniel to capitalize by punishing Casey with some hard strikes, and perhaps winning by late TKO.

Overall, Casey just doesn’t have enough tools for me to be confident in him winning this fight. While he has a very good ground game, that’s pretty much all Casey brings to the table. Even then, Casey probably needs to finish McDaniel early if he wants to win this fight. I can see that happening, but I think it’s more likely that McDaniel will survive the first round, and come back strong to punish Casey in the second and third rounds. My pick is McDaniel by TKO.

The Ultimate Fighter 17 Episode Eight Preview: Dylan Andrews vs. Zak Cummings

Last week, we saw Clint Hester, the top pick of Team Jones, take on Team Sonnen grappler Jimmy Quinlan. The first round was mostly controlled by Hester, who was able to thwart Quinlan’s wrestling and land a number of hard strikes from awkward positions. Luke Barnatt argued for Quinlan winning the round because of takedowns, but that brings up a point I like to mention for scoring rounds: what good is landing a takedown if a fighter can’t do anything with it? Hester won the first round for sure.

In the second round, however, Quinlan did something with the takedown, advancing to dominant position and finishing Hester with a rear naked choke. It was a body blow to Team Jones, which was clearly hoping for great things out of Hester in the tournament. The talent level of TUF is much maligned, but even there, it’s important to be well-rounded, particularly with striking defense and submission defense. Hester has talent, but he just hasn’t tightened up his submission defense enough to compete at a UFC level. The silver lining is that we probably haven’t seen the last of Hester – he’s almost a lock to be one of the wild card participants.

For Quinlan, it wasn’t a performance that blew me away. Quinlan is one of the least experienced fighters in the house, and it showed with the lack of variety in his attacks. Against Hester, he was able to overcome the rough start to pull off the victory, but it’s hard to see Quinlan going all the way in this tournament. I have nothing but respect for his BJJ credentials, but it takes more than that to win consistently in MMA.

TUF 17 FIGHTER RANKINGS

1. Zak Cummings – 8.022 (Team Sonnen)
2. Uriah Hall – 7.383 (Sonnen)
3. Tor Troeng – 7.348 (Sonnen)
4. Luke Barnatt – 7.127 (Sonnen)
5. Josh Samman – 7.009 (Jones)
6. Dylan Andrews – 6.532 (Jones)
7. Robert McDaniel – 6.421 (Jones)
8. Kevin Casey – 6.234 (Sonnen)
9. Clint Hester – 5.995 (Jones)
10. Gilbert Smith – 5.917 (Jones)
11. Jimmy Quinlan – 5.893 (Sonnen)
12. Kelvin Gastelum – 5.655 (Sonnen)
13. Adam Cella – 5.428 (Jones)
14. Collin Hart – 5.154 (Jones)

Dylan Andrews vs. Zak Cummings

Finally, in the last fight of the first round, we’re going to see my top-ranked fighter in action. There’s been a lot of hype around Uriah Hall, and a lot said about Luke Barnatt, Josh Samman, and even Tor Troeng and “Bubba” McDaniel, but barely anything has been said about Zak Cummings. Cummings might not have the raw upside of fighters like Hall and Barnatt, but he has easily the most impressive record out of anybody in the house. Cummings began his MMA career at a perfect 10-0, earning a chance to fight Tim Kennedy in a Strikeforce Challengers show. He was submitted by Kennedy, and then defeated by Elvis Mutapcic, but followed those losses with five wins in six fights. The other loss was by decision to Ryan Jimmo, who is not only a very good fighter, but also much bigger than Cummings. Overall, Cummings enters at 15-3, and while he hasn’t beaten many big names, he does have a plethora of victories against quality opponents with winning records.

His opponent is Dylan Andrews, the last fighter to be picked by a team, but almost certainly not the worst fighter in the house. At 15-4, Andrews has a similar record to Cummings, although his level of competition hasn’t been quite as high. So far, Andrews’ fight history has been one of beating low-level opponents, and losing when he steps up in competition. The biggest name Andrews has beaten is Shonie Carter (a perfect example of a fighter who has competed far too long), and his most notable losses are by TKO against Brian Ebersole, and by submission against Jesse Taylor. But that doesn’t mean Andrews is a slouch – 10 of his 15 wins are by TKO, and a few of those are against fairly good opponents.

Three of Andrews’ four losses are by submission, so Cummings, who has eight submission wins, will probably want to take him to the ground. If Cummings is successful in doing so, he should have a big advantage, but if Andrews can keep the fight standing, he may prove to be the better striker. My model, which has been much maligned by myself, thinks Cummings has an 82 percent chance of winning. As usual, his real-world chance of winning is probably lower than that, but I do expect Cummings to win the fight tonight.