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UFC Fight Night Cincinnati Predictions Summary
Posted by on May 9, 2014
My picks for this event are:
- Matt Brown over Erick Silva
- Lorenz Larkin over Costas Philippou
- Erik Koch over Daron Cruickshank
- Tim Means over Neil Magny
- Soa Palelei over Ruan Potts
- Chris Cariaso over Louis Smolka
- Rafael Natal over Ed Herman
- Kyoji Horiguchi over Darrell Montague
- Yan Cabral over Zak Cummings
- Eddie Wineland over Johnny Eduardo
- Nik Lentz over Manny Gamburyan
- Justin Salas over Ben Wall
- Albert Tumenov over Anthony Lapsley
PICKS TO DATE
Last Event: 6-4 (60.0%)
Year to Date: 100-51 (66.2%)
At UFC 172 I got a little adventurous and picked Yancy Medeiros to upset Jim Miller. That one didn’t work out great.
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$0.20
Current Bankroll: $56.41
Total Investment: $140.07
Total Return: $6.41
Return on Investment: 4.6%
At UFC 172, only one of my four bets were winners. Fortunately, the $3.70 I won on Anthony Johnson was just enough to overcome the $3.50 I risked on Medeiros, Tim Elliott, and Tim Boetsch. The result is a profit of a whole 20 cents.
For this event I have:
Matt Brown +200: $2.00 to win $4.00
Costas Philippou +195: $2.00 to win $3.90
Daron Cruickshank +290: $2.00 to win $5.80
Neil Magny +225: $2.00 to win $4.50
Chris Cariaso +130: $2.00 to win $2.60
Manny Gamburyan +335: $2.00 to win $6.70
Yeah, I went a little crazy this time. I genuinely think there’s some value in all these lines, even though I picked against Philippou, Cruickshank, Magny, and Gamburyan. But let’s say only Brown and Magny win (for example). I still make a profit if that happens. I’m counting on at least two of these underdogs winning.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!
UFC on Fox 10 Predictions Summary
Posted by on January 24, 2014
Here’s what FPR thinks of the fights:
*I am going against FPR on these fights. I’m picking Camus over Meza, Pettis over Caceres, and Miocic over Gonzaga. In all three cases, the strong opinion of the betting public overrides the weak opinion of FPR.
**This is my best-guess FPR for debuting fighters.
Last Event: 7-5 (58.3%)
Year To Date: 14-8 (63.6%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: -$0.90
Current Bankroll: $49.40
Total Investment: $64.80
Total Return: -$0.60
Return on Investment: -0.9%
At the last event Brad Tavares +180 was a winner for me while Derek Brunson +190 and Charlie Brenneman -160 were losers. I’ll admit that Brenneman was a bad bet… but I think Brunson was a good one. He surprised 99% of the MMA community by winning the first two rounds against Yoel Romero (I think I was the only person not surprised by this). Then Brunson gassed out horribly and Romero finished him with strikes in round 3. I can’t be too disappointed with making that selection.
For this event I have:
Donald Cerrone -200: $3.00 to win $1.50
Darren Elkins +105: $2.50 to win $2.63
Benson Henderson by decision -114: $1.14 to win $1.00
Alex Caceres +165: $1.00 to win $1.65
Nikita Krylov +310: $0.58 to win $1.80
I know I said I wasn’t going to bet on Krylov but I couldn’t help myself. I just can’t imagine how Walt Harris is a -410 favorite to beat anybody in the UFC. I kept the bet small because I don’t trust Krylov at all.
I’ve also placed a bet on Billy Daniels +1500: $0.50 to win $7.50 to beat Pedro Munhoz at tonight’s RFA event. For some reason Munhoz has gone from -280 to -4500. I don’t know anything about either fighter, but I placed a flier on Daniels just because of how ridiculous the line is.
Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.
Best of luck and enjoy the fights!
UFC on Fox 10 Prediction: Daron Cruickshank vs. Mike Rio
Posted by on January 21, 2014
Daron Cruickshank is a 5’8″ lightweight with an overall record of 13-4, 3-2 in the UFC. His opponent is Mike Rio, a 5’10” lightweight with an overall record of 9-3, 1-2 in the UFC. Both fighters are coming off losses. Cruickshank lost his last fight by second-round submission to Adriano Martins while Rio lost by first-round submission to Tony Ferguson.
Daron Cruickshank
Cruickshank is definitely a fighter who likes to keep fights standing and slug it out with his opponent. While Cruickshank uses a variety of kicks in his arsenal he hasn’t found consistent success as a striker. Overall, Cruickshank has absorbed 187 significant strikes while landing 172, a -15 margin. Cruickshank’s best performance was in his second UFC fight against Henry Martinez, where he out-struck Martinez 52-21 and won the fight by knockout in the second round. However, in his following fight against John Makdessi, Cruickshank was out-struck 86-51. Cruickshank appears to be a good but not great striker overall.
It’s difficult to draw conclusions about Cruickshank’s takedown game because the UFC has primarily matched him up against fellow strikers. Makdessi and Martinez are both examples of fighters who prefer to stand and strike as their base offense. Cruickshank also won by split decision against Yves Edwards despite Edwards landing slightly more significant strikes (48-44). He’s only been taken down twice but has yet to face an opponent who could be considered a wrestler.
As is often the case with strikers like Cruickshank, the ground game appears to be where he is most vulnerable. Cruickshank is 7-1 in fights that end by TKO and 5-1 in fights that end by decision, but just 1-2 in fights that end by submission. In the UFC Cruickshank has been caught in three submission attempts, one of which forced him to tap out. Cruickshank’s lone submission victory was against an opponent whose record is currently 1-4. The most efficient way to fight Cruickshank is likely to force a grappling battle.
Mike Rio
It’s hard to watch Mike Rio fight without immediately identifying flaws in his game. Rio throws strikes in such a way that he leaves his head up and his chin exposed. In fights against Tony Ferguson, John Cofer, and Andy Ogle, Rio was repeatedly hit with clean, hard shots directly to the head. So far Rio’s chin has held up as he has yet to lose a fight by knockout. However, it’s a trend that is likely to result in some knockout losses eventually – and could easily lead to a knockout loss against a striker like Cruickshank.
Rio’s background is in wrestling and it shows as he pursues takedowns on a frequent basis. Rio has landed five takedowns in just 19 minutes of UFC action despite only landing them at a 31 percent success rate. It seems that Rio’s opponents are geared to defend the takedown because they don’t respect his striking abilities – and this makes Rio’s job more difficult. There have been extended periods of Rio clinching, searching for a takedown and only sometimes finding it. To Rio’s credit he is very persistent in pursuit of the takedown.
Unfortunately Rio’s ground game is an enormous liability. Rio’s wrestling skill often puts him in a great position such as side control or mount but he just as easily loses that position to his opponent. Rio has a history of losing by submission – both of his last two losses were by first-round submission against Ferguson and Francisco Trinaldo. Rio was also finished by rear naked choke against Ogle despite having taken Ogle’s back earlier in the round. Ogle worked from that position to Rio’s guard, then the mount, then the back, and finally the submission that finished the fight.
Daron Cruickshank vs. Mike Rio
Rio has far too many flaws for me to pick him to win this fight. His tendency to get hit hard is very troubling against an opponent like Cruickshank who has a history of winning by knockout. I could easily see Cruickshank knocking Rio out with a well-timed punch or kick. While Rio may be able to take Cruickshank down and test Cruickshank’s ground game, I don’t trust Rio to stay out of submission holds at all. There’s a very good chance that Cruickshank has the more effective ground game. Cruickshank is simply the better overall fighter and has to be considered the favorite to win this match.
Pick: Daron Cruickshank by TKO
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
The line opened with Cruickshank the favorite as -210 and Rio the underdog at +160. The line has since moved to Cruickshank -260/Rio +180. Cruickshank is just too expensive for me right now – he’s too flawed for me to pay $2.60 to win $1.00. We could easily see Rio smother Cruickshank with takedowns and perhaps win by submission himself. At the same time I have zero interest in betting Rio here so it’s a total pass for me.
UFC Fight Night 32 Predictions Summary
Posted by on November 8, 2013
Before you run off to make your predictions on Sherdog or Tapology or especially the sportsbook, there are a few things to keep in mind here first:
-Yes, FPR is giving Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante a 94 percent chance of beating Igor Pokrajac. Every projection I make comes with a margin of error based on the confidence level. For the purposes of finding betting value it’s better to consider “Feijao” an 84 percent favorite, allowing for a 10 percent margin of error. The margin of error I use is 5% for high confidence, 10% for medium confidence, 15% for low confidence, and infinity for very low confidence.
-I’m attaching the “very low” confidence level to Paulo Thiago vs. Brandon Thatch and I’m picking Thatch to win the fight on Sherdog. Thatch is currently a -330 favorite to win the fight. As a statistician I have to ask the question: what’s more significant, my whole one minute of data on Thatch or the sophistication of the betting markets? The answer is obviously to follow the betting markets and take Thatch to win.
-The same logic applies for Thiago Perpetuo vs. Omari Akhmedov. I’m picking Akhmedov to win the fight because he’s a strong betting favorite.
-Degenerate gambling picks for this event are: Rafael Cavalcante, Dan Henderson, Jeremy Stephens, and Justin Salas, in that order. Best of luck and enjoy the fights!
FPR Update – 10/29
Posted by on October 29, 2013
Fighter Performance Ratings on this blog have been updated for all UFC fighters. They can be accessed via the links on the sidebar.
Here are some quick notes from the update:
–Cain Velasquez goes down to +17.35 because he was a little less dominant than normal against Junior Dos Santos. Velasquez still has easily the highest FPR in the UFC. Between that performance by Velasquez and Jon Jones‘ struggles against Alexander Gustafsson, there aren’t too many people calling for Jones to challenge for the heavyweight title these days. That is as it should be.
–Lyoto Machida checks in at middleweight as the second-best fighter in the division according to FPR. Machida trails only Chris Weidman and is well ahead of Anderson Silva. The obvious match to make if Weidman beats Silva again is to have him face Machida… assuming Machida can defeat Vitor Belfort or whoever else he’s matched up against next.
-If Jimi Manuwa keeps up his current pace over 60 minutes he’ll have an FPR of +5.46, which would rank 7th at light-heavyweight ahead of Mauricio Rua and behind Ryan Bader. The reason Manuwa’s FPR isn’t that good yet (+1.07) is because I’ve designed FPR to make a fighter “prove it.” In other words, prove you’re that good on a consistent basis. I think the jury is still out on Manuwa as a potential top 10 fighter at 205 pounds.
-Here is the FPR of every fighter from TUF 15 who is still in the UFC:
- Myles Jury +2.70
- Al Iaquinta +0.27
- Daron Cruickshank +0.27
- James Vick -1.98
- Jon Tuck -2.03
- James Krause -2.09
- Jeremy Larsen -2.52
- Joe Proctor -2.93
So far it looks like Jury, Iaquinta, and Cruickshank are the mainstays from that season. James Vick could easily join them as he’s only fought in the UFC for one minute so far. I still think Jury has the highest upside of the group.
UFC on Fox 8 Prediction: Daron Cruickshank vs. Yves Edwards
Posted by on July 23, 2013
After defeating Henry Martinez in brutal fashion, the UFC gave Daron Cruickshank a chance to prove he could hang with one of the tougher strikers in the lightweight division. His new opponent was John Makdessi, a fighter with excellent technical kickboxing. Makdessi proved to be too tough for Cruickshank, as he won a striking battle over three rounds. Now, Cruickshank will get another chance to prove he can beat a striker as he faces longtime veteran Yves Edwards.
On paper, I have to give Edwards the overall advantage in striking. Edwards has a 577-465 edge in significant strikes over his opponents, including eight knockdowns landed against just one received. Cruickshank’s numbers aren’t nearly as impressive: 120-123 in significant strikes, 1-0 in knockdowns. As old as Edwards is in “fight years,” he still knows how to strike, as he showed in his impressive first-round KO victory over Jeremy Stephens in December.
Where Cruickshank might have an advantage is in takedowns. Cruickshank has proven to be a striker first in his MMA career, but he’s also landed four takedowns in 38 minutes of UFC fighting, one per 9.5 minutes. Compare that to Edwards, who lands takedowns at a rate of one every 18.6 minutes, and gets taken down a lot more frequently than that. I don’t expect Cruickshank to land takedowns with the intention of engaging in a grappling contest, but if Cruickshank can keep the striking portions of the fight pretty close, his takedowns might make the difference on the judges’ scorecards.
I wouldn’t count on it though. Strikers can’t be relied on to execute a game plan like that one. It’s more likely that Cruickshank will simply choose to stand and bang with Edwards for the duration of the fight. There’s even a chance that it’s Edwards who chooses to go for takedowns, but I think the most likely scenario is that we see a striking match for 15 minutes.
When I look at the data, I simply have to favor Edwards in that scenario. As flashy as Cruickshank’s striking might be, the reality is that he’s absorbed just as many strikes as he’s landed. On top of that, Cruickshank’s chin is a concern, as he was knocked unconscious on The Ultimate Fighter by James Vick.
On paper, Edwards has advantages in striking defense, knockout power, and resistance to being knocked out. Cruickshank has the edge in striking offense, but I don’t think that will be enough for him to win. I favor Edwards to either win by knockout, or sweat out a competitive decision.
Pick: Yves Edwards by decision
UFC 158 Preview and Predictions
Posted by on March 15, 2013
I’ll be giving my thoughts on the main event between Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz in a separate post. For now, here are my thoughts on the other fights scheduled to take place at UFC 158:
170 lbs: Carlos Condit (28-6, 5-2 UFC) vs. Johny Hendricks (14-1, 9-1 UFC)
Hendricks has become famous for possessing absurd knockout power in his left hand. After one-punch KO victories over Martin Kampmann and Jon Fitch, it might seem as if Hendricks should choose to stand and bang with anybody he’s matched up against. If he does that against Condit, I think it would be a mistake. Condit is a very skilled kickboxer who is good at avoiding power shots – he’s never been finished by KO/TKO in his 34 fight career. If this fight stays standing, I expect that Condit should be able to out-strike Hendricks.
I just don’t think the fight will stay standing. Hendricks is an outstanding wrestler, an NCAA national champion, and a fighter whose wrestling has translated to MMA very well. Hendricks has taken on a lot of tough wrestlers in the UFC welterweight division – Josh Koscheck, Mike Pierce, Rick Story, Charlie Brenneman – and his takedown game has held up well. In those fights combined, Hendricks has landed nine takedowns, while his opponents have landed six. Against Condit, a fighter known for having weak takedown defense, I expect Hendricks to land takedowns regularly and win by decision.
Prediction: Johny Hendricks by decision
170 lbs: Jake Ellenberger (28-6, 7-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, 10-4 UFC)
After a nearly two year absence from the UFC, Nate Marquardt returns as a welterweight to take on powerful wrestler Jake Ellenberger. Ellenberger is like a slightly worse version of Johny Hendricks. He has a ton of KO power to go along with very effective wrestling, but Ellenberger’s conditioning isn’t quite as good from what I’ve seen. When Ellenberger had Martin Kampmann hurt, he was unable to finish, which opened the door for Kampmann to come back and stop a fatigued Ellenberger.
I don’t think Ellenberger matches up well with Marquardt. While Ellenberger is always a threat to win by KO, Marquardt has only been stopped by KO/TKO once in 45 fights, and that was against Anderson Silva. I think Marquardt is the better overall striker, and should be able to out-point Ellenberger over the course of three rounds. For Ellenberger, the answer is to land takedowns, and whether or not he’ll be able to land them is a tough call. Marquardt has respectable takedown defense and is a huge welterweight, but Ellenberger is very much a power wrestler. Overall, it makes for a very close fight in which I slightly side with Marquardt.
Prediction: Nate Marquardt by decision
185 lbs: Chris Camozzi (18-5, 5-2 UFC) vs. Nick Ring (13-1, 3-1 UFC)
It always looks good to see that a fighter has a 5-2 UFC record, and that’s my best guess for why there’s some hype behind Chris Camozzi. Camozzi opened up as a +140 underdog against Nick Ring, but money immediately came in on Camozzi. The thing about Camozzi is that none of his performances have been all that impressive – his most impressive performance was in his last fight against Luiz Cane, but Cane’s striking defense is terrible. I respect what Camozzi brings to the UFC, but he’s never shown talent on par with a top 25 middleweight.
Against Nick Ring, I expect Camozzi to have a difficult time. The fight will probably take place on the feet, although it’s possible Ring could take Camozzi to the ground. But even on the feet, I favor Ring. I think Ring is not only the better striker, but even if Camozzi lands more strikes, Ring does have a history of being given questionable decisions by the judges. Camozzi is definitely competitive in this fight, but I think Ring has to be considered the favorite.
Prediction: Nick Ring by decision
155 lbs: Colin Fletcher (8-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Mike Ricci (7-3, 0-1 UFC)
I guess The Ultimate Fighter goes a long way for aspiring UFC fighters, because Colin Fletcher and Mike Ricci have found themselves on a major pay per view main card, despite having zero professional UFC wins between them. Fletcher profiles as a fighter who would perform very well on the regional circuit, but struggle to win fights in the UFC. He’s a very tall and lanky fighter for the lightweight division, and has an excellent submission game. Unfortunately for Fletcher, he doesn’t have a very good takedown game, and should need help to get the fight to the ground.
Mike Ricci is unlikely to give him that help. Ricci is also a big lightweight, and although he was smothered by Colton Smith in his last fight, I doubt Ricci will allow Fletcher to take him to the ground. Fletcher is not a bad striker either, but that’s where Ricci is at his best. If this fight hits the ground for any length of time, it could get interesting, but otherwise, I expect Ricci to consistently out-strike Fletcher and eventually win by TKO.
Prediction: Mike Ricci by decision
170 lbs: Patrick Cote (18-8, 5-8 UFC) vs. Bobby Voelker (24-8, 0-0 UFC)
It’s hard for me to get excited about this fight. Patrick Cote was never a great UFC fighter, but his recent performances have been uninspiring at best. It’s not good for a striker to get battered by his opponents, even if his opponents are fellow strikers like Cung Le and Alessio Sakara. Against Bobby Voelker, Cote should be able to find a way to win. Voelker is a journeyman with a history of losing when he steps up in competition, although he did win two out of three fights against Roger Bowling. Cote is the more talented fighter of the two, and I’m picking him to win, but I have very little confidence in the pick.
Prediction: Patrick Cote by TKO
145 lbs: Antonio Carvalho (15-5, 2-1 UFC) vs. Darren Elkins (15-2, 5-1 UFC)
Darren Elkins finally has some hype behind him after consecutive victories over Steven Siler and Diego Brandao. The Siler win was definitely Elkins’s most impressive in the UFC, but let’s not forget his history of uninspiring performances until then. The decision win over Michihiro Omigawa was very controversial, Elkins needed to come from behind to beat an exhausted Brandao, and beating Tiequan Zhang just doesn’t say very much. I think Antonio Carvalho is the more skilled fighter here, and has a great chance to upset Elkins in this match. My overall pick to win is Elkins, based on superior wrestling and conditioning, but I wouldn’t even think about betting on him.
Prediction: Darren Elkins by decision
170 lbs: Jordan Mein (26-8, 0-0 UFC) vs. Dan Miller (14-6, 6-5 UFC)
Dan Miller might be the more recognizable name here, but that doesn’t mean he’s the better fighter. I expect Jordan Mein to be the better and more active striker, and the better overall wrestler as well. The onus will be on Miller to take the fight to the ground and showcase his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but that should prove easier said than done against Mein. It’s certainly possible that Miller can find a way to drag this fight to the ground and win by submission, but if he doesn’t, this is Mein’s fight to lose.
Prediction: Jordan Mein by decision
155 lbs: Daron Cruickshank (12-2, 2-0 UFC) vs. John Makdessi (10-2, 3-2 UFC)
I think it’s hilarious that Cruickshank’s nickname is “Detroit Superstar.” I enjoy watching both him and Makdessi fight, and given both fighters’ willingness to stand and strike, this one should make for tremendous entertainment. In what is otherwise a 50-50 fight, I have to give the edge to Makdessi, because Cruickshank’s chin is very suspect. Cruickshank has a KO loss on his record to Luis Palomino, but was also knocked out by James Vick on The Ultimate Fighter. Since I think Makdessi has a much better chance of winning by TKO, he has to be the pick.
Prediction: John Makdessi by decision
170 lbs: Quinn Mulhern (18-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Rick Story (14-6, 7-4 UFC)
We need to find out how good Rick Story is for real. Is Story the fighter who defeated Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves, and arguably should have been awarded a decision against Martin Kampmann? Or is Story the fighter who was smothered by Charlie Brenneman and dominated by Demian Maia? I think Story is a good but not great UFC welterweight, and that means he should be able to get past Quinn Mulhern here. Mulhern has an impressive looking record, but not a lot of impressive wins. There’s no reason to think Mulhern can stop Story’s game of close-range striking and takedowns.
Prediction: Rick Story by decision
135 lbs: T.J. Dillashaw (6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Issei Tamura (7-3, 1-1 UFC)
Dillashaw might be the best prospect at 135 pounds in the UFC. A wrestler training out of Team Alpha Male, Dillashaw looked fantastic in wins over Walel Watson and Vaughan Lee. He still needs a lot of polish before he takes on highly ranked opponents in the bantamweight division, and I expect that’s why he’s been matched up against Issei Tamura. Tamura is a wrestler with KO power, but Dillashaw should prove the better wrestler, which leaves only the threat of a knockout. Dillashaw being a -650 favorite is a bit absurd, but he really should win this fight.
Prediction: T.J. Dillashaw by decision
135 lbs: Reuben Duran (8-4-1, 1-2 UFC) vs. George Roop (12-9-1, 2-5 UFC)
I already thought it was bad enough that the 6’1” George Roop would fight at 145 pounds; him fighting at 135 pounds is just horrible. This reminds me of when James Irvin dropped to 185 pounds – it was just hard to watch Irvin dehydrate himself so dangerously. I can’t pick Roop to win this fight – not when he already struggles to win fights in the UFC as it is. Roop can be tricky to deal with, but Duran is a solid striker who should be able to tag Roop standing. I like Duran to win, assuming Roop comes close enough to making weight that he’s allowed to fight in the first place.
Prediction: Reuben Duran by TKO
SILVA Predictions for TUF 15 Finale
Posted by on June 1, 2012
After thinking about it a little bit, I’ve decided not to do a detailed preview post for these fights. The reasons are as follows. One, SILVA was absolutely dreadful predicting TUF fights, to an embarrassing extent. Two, I really don’t know a whole lot about a number of participants on the main card, including featherweights Max Holloway and Pat Schilling. Three, I’m short on time and really just need to get SILVA’s predictions out the door.
If there is a fighter from this season of TUF I would pick to make waves in the UFC, it’s Myles Jury. Honestly, this particular season was pretty darn thin in terms of UFC-level talent; I certainly don’t see any future title contenders.
As for picking against SILVA… I really should do that for every fight featuring TUF competitors, but I’ll only do it for the finale between Mike Chiesa and Al Iaquinta and the other main card fight, between John Cofer and Justin Lawrence. I’ll just be happy if SILVA does better than 5-5 for this event.
Why Did SILVA Crash and Burn Evaluating TUF 15?
Posted by on May 2, 2012
For those who don’t know, I originally got the idea to put SILVA together from watching The Ultimate Fighter. It actually originated with Chuck Liddell on the 11th season. Instead of evaluating fighters based on what he saw in their preliminary fights on the show, Liddell went back and looked at each fighter’s record and how good their wins were. As it turns out, Liddell’s team enjoyed considerable success, including eventual TUF 11 champion Court McGee.
So it pains me to see the most recent version of SILVA just fail miserably to evaluate the current season of TUF. The thing is: previous versions of SILVA actually did quite well evaluating TUF. So why did SILVA 1.1 struggle so badly, while SILVA 1.0 did so well?
One of the key changes made for SILVA 1.1 is that it completely discarded fights against inexperienced opponents. Make no mistake about this: this change absolutely helped improve SILVA’s ability to predict UFC fights. At the same time, I think it’s hurt SILVA’s ability to predict TUF fights.
How can this be? Well, with professional UFC fights, the participants involved generally have a good amount of experience. SILVA works by looking at a fighter’s last ten qualifying fights; a fight does not qualify if the opponent has fewer than five fights on his record. For a typical UFC fighter with a career 15-20 fights, this is not a problem. A few of these fights can be thrown out, and SILVA still will have the full complement of ten fights to work with.
For TUF fighters, this is a major problem. Many of them are very inexperienced, having fewer than ten fights to begin with. For fighters like this, when evaluating them based on their record, it’s important to include as much information as possible, even if some of the information is inherently flawed. The idea isn’t to get an extremely precise estimate of how good they are, just a decent estimate.
Of the 16 fighters to make it into the house on the current season, SILVA 1.1 yielded a top four of John Cofer, Myles Jury, Daron Cruickshank, and Chris Saunders. Of those four, only Saunders has made it to the quarterfinals, and his inclusion was somewhat controversial, as he won his fight against Sam Sicilia by split decision. Considering that SILVA 1.0 was able to narrow every season of TUF to four fighters who had a chance to win it all (except season seven with Amir Sadollah), this was a terrible result.
Since SILVA 1.0 was so successful in the past, I had a thought. Why don’t I apply SILVA 1.0 to the current season of TUF, just to see what happens? SILVA 1.0 didn’t throw out fights like SILVA 1.1 and 1.2 do, so maybe SILVA 1.0 has the information it needs to properly evaluate this season of TUF, right?
Well, here’s what SILVA 1.0 would have to say:
- John Cofer – 28.81
- Cristiano Marcello – 25.48
- Myles Jury – 24.84
- Daron Cruickshank – 24.73
- Jeremy Larsen – 23.89
- Andy Ogle – 21.37
- Chris Saunders – 21.24
- Mike Rio – 18.29
- Joey Proctor – 16.81
- Al Iaquinta – 16.38
- Mike Chiesa – 14.94
- Sam Sicilia – 13.65
- Vinc Pichel – 12.96
- Chris Tickle – 11.44
- Justin Lawrence – N/A
- James Vick – N/A
In other words… LOL.
So SILVA just completely failed at this season of TUF, period. There are no excuses. But the folks over at Fight Matrix have had a lot of success picking TUF winners before, so maybe they had a better idea than SILVA?
Well, here is their current TUF rankings, which show a top four of Daron Cruickshank, John Cofer, Mike Rio, and Cristiano Marcello. Maybe there’s hope for Rio, but just like SILVA 1.1, Fight Matrix only has one fighter of their top four even alive in the tournament.
To answer the question of why SILVA has been such a disaster predicting TUF this season requires two answers. The first is that there have simply been some very surprising results. By no means did I expect James Vick to knock out Daron Cruickshank, and I definitely did not think Al Iaquinta would manage to beat Myles Jury. Two of the top contenders to win this season of TUF were eliminated in huge upsets.
The other answer is that the real best prospect on this season of TUF is Justin Lawrence. Even though Lawrence is just 3-0 in professional MMA, with no noteworthy wins, he has fought with the skill and discipline of somebody much more experienced than he is. It’s not normal for somebody like Lawrence to put together such a masterful performance against a veteran like Cristiano Marcello. Sometimes, scouting just knows something statistics don’t, and while Lawrence could definitely still lose, those who say Lawrence has the best chance of winning the whole thing were absolutely correct.
Fantasy Fights 