TUF 16 Finale Preview and Predictions

Since this is the second of two UFC events this week, I’ll only be giving in depth picks for the main card fights. Predictions for the preliminary fights are included at the end of the post.

Heavyweight match: Matt Mitrione (5-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (17-7, 4-3 UFC)

A reader of this blog could be forgiven for thinking I have something against Roy Nelson. It seems like I pick against Nelson every time he fights. I remember when Nelson was on The Ultimate Fighter, and I had to tell everybody I knew that Nelson really was a good fighter (despite being fat). Once upon a time, I was the one who liked Nelson, while it seemed like everybody else was counting him out.

Well, I’m picking against him once again. That’s right, I’m taking Matt Mitrione in an upset. But it’s not just because of Nelson, it’s because of Mitrione. As I’ve pointed out many times before, Mitrione has had a remarkable early career. Sure, none of Mitrione’s five wins were against anybody amazing, unless you’re a huge fan of Tim Hague or Christian Morecraft. But I challenge you to think of your favorite fighter, and look at his first five wins. Chances are that they’re not as good as Mitrione’s.

Nelson’s fights go one of two ways. Either Nelson gets pummeled by his opponent, or he wins by knockout. What’s problematic about Nelson’s UFC fight history is that all of his knockout wins are against opponents known to have questionable chins. He knocked out Dave Herman, but Herman was also knocked out by Stefan Struve. Nelson knocked out Struve as well, but four of Struve’s losses are by knockout. Nelson knocked out Brendan Schaub, but Schaub has subsequently been knocked out by Ben Rothwell and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. And Nelson’s other knockout win in the UFC was against Mirko Cro Cop, in the third fight in a row Cro Cop got knocked out. By contrast, Matt Mitrione has yet to be knocked out in a fight.

On the flip side, Nelson’s losses are all to very good heavyweights – Junior dos Santos, Fabricio Werdum, and Frank Mir. As much as I like Mitrione’s potential, he’s nowhere near as good as those fighters yet.

But ultimately, based on the fight histories of Nelson and Mitrione, this fight is likely to end in one of two ways: a KO win by Nelson, or a decision win by Mitrione. Since Mitrione has never been knocked out, I like him to keep this fight standing, out-strike Nelson over five rounds, and end up winning on the judges’ scorecards.

Welterweight match: Mike Ricci (7-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Colton Smith (3-1, 0-0 UFC)

I’m very familiar with the history of Ultimate Fighter competitors with fewer than five professional fights, and it’s not a good one. Colton Smith has shown that he’s a good wrestler with a decent chin. I just think Mike Ricci is the better overall fighter and will have a good plan to deal with Smith’s wrestling. Ricci isn’t a superstar in waiting in the UFC, but I think he has what it takes to win this one.

Heavyweight match: Pat Barry (7-5, 4-5 UFC) vs. Shane del Rosario (11-1, 0-1 UFC)

Prepare for Pat Barry’s swan song in the UFC. He seems like a great guy, but for somebody who’s known as a striker, he sure isn’t very good at it. Barry has actually taken more strikes than he’s landed over his UFC career. But I don’t think del Rosario will have much patience for the striking game here. When del Rosario fought Lavar Johnson, he took Johnson to the ground and submitted him. Barry isn’t quite as hopeless on the ground as Johnson, but he’s pretty bad. Shane del Rosario has to be my pick to win this fight.

Lightweight match: Melvin Guillard (30-11-2, 11-7 UFC) vs. Jamie Varner (20-7-1, 2-2 UFC)

We know the drill with Melvin Guillard by now. He has very fast hands and tremendous knockout power. He can be very difficult to take down. And he can fall apart in a fight very quickly. Meanwhile, Jamie Varner has never been knocked out, and has quite a few wins by submission. Anything can happen in a short period of time, but I’ll take Varner to weather an early storm and submit Guillard.

Featherweight match: Jonathan Brookins (13-5, 2-2 UFC) vs. Dustin Poirier (12-2, 4-1 UFC)

Brookins is a fighter who knows what he’s good at. He engages his opponents in the clinch, and tries to get them to the ground. Poirier does have a history of being taken down by fighters who are decent wrestlers, including Chan Sung Jung in his last fight. Of course, if Brookins fails to land the takedown, he doesn’t stand much of a chance to win a striking battle. I side with Poirier overall based on that striking advantage, but I think Brookins has a good chance of winning in an upset here.

PRELIM PICKS

Mike Pyle over James Head
Johnny Bedford over Marcos Vinicius
Rustam Khabilov over Vinc Pichel
Nick Catone over T.J. Waldburger
Reuben Duran over Hugo Viana
John Cofer over Mike Rio
Jared Papazian over Tim Elliott

UFC Fight Night 25 Preview: Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch

Before I begin with this fight preview, let me list the three featherweights SILVA has estimated to be “elite” fighters in the UFC.

• Chad Mendes – 52.33
• Jose Aldo – 48.14
• Erik Koch – 44.82

For the rest of this preview to make sense, you need to be aware that SILVA considers Koch to be the third-best featherweight fighter in the world. Now, sometimes I get this fantasy that either somebody working for the UFC reads my stuff, and puts together fights based on my numbers and analysis, or that I’ve somehow stumbled upon the magic formula that the UFC uses. When Johny Hendricks is my #3 rated welterweight in the UFC, and then I see it announced that he’s been chosen to fight Jon Fitch, it makes me think that maybe, just maybe, I’m onto something special.

Then fights like Erik Koch vs. Jonathan Brookins are put together, and I get reminded that I’m just some random MMA blogger on the internet and the UFC probably thinks that SILVA is simply the proper way to write Anderson Silva’s name, because he deserves all caps. Now, I have a soft spot for Jonathan Brookins. The very first thing I tested the first version of SILVA on was the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where my original ranking was:

1. Cody McKenzie
2. Jeff Lentz
3. Jonathan Brookins

McKenzie gave me a great moment when he dispatched first pick Marc Stevens in seconds, but then he gassed out badly and lost by TKO to Nam Phan. Jeff Lentz started well against Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres, but then lost by triangle choke, and there’s really no excuse for my #2 guy losing to Alex Caceres. But Jonathan Brookins… Jonathan Brookins won the entire show, and motivated me to keep working on my system. Of course, SILVA 1.0 had Michael Johnson #1 and Jonathan Brookins #2, so there was definitely improvement there, but at least I had some success to work with before that.

Here’s the thing: this doesn’t make Brookins a great fighter or some sort of “prospect.” Brookins was hit very hard by Johnson, and was probably out-struck by Kyle Watson, and as Brookins has been fighting professionally five years now, there’s not much hope for Brookins suddenly becoming an adequate striker.

That’s bad news about the Duke Roufus trained Erik Koch. Koch last defeated solid veteran Raphael Assuncao by sudden first-round KO at UFC 128, which came after a head kick TKO win over Francisco Rivera. Now, I was surprised to see that Koch only has three TKO wins, but that’s because Koch has won seven fights by submission. So Koch is far from just a striker: he’s a truly well-rounded mixed martial artist who’s dangerous both standing and on the ground.

Brookins needs to be the better grappler if he’s going to win this fight, as I just don’t see him winning a striking battle against Koch. Brookins showed against Michael Johnson that he’s capable of taking punishment and working the ground game to a victory, but Koch isn’t likely to get exhausted the same way that Johnson did.

SILVA PREDICTION: ERIK KOCH (44.82) OVER JONATHAN BROOKINS (23.26)

The ultimate difference between these fighters is simply their respective records. Now, you can say that one of Brookins’s losses is to Jose Aldo, but Koch’s ONLY loss is to Chad Mendes. Meanwhile, eight of Koch’s 12 wins are against fighters rated as above-average by Victory Score, and a ninth was against T.J. O’Brien, who for all of his flaws did at least eventually get himself invited to the UFC. Jonathan Brookins just doesn’t compare to Erik Koch, and quite frankly, I’m surprised that Koch is only a 2-1 favorite here. I expect Koch to win in emphatic fashion.