Fantasy Fights
Intelligent, unique MMA analysis
UFC Fight Night Albuquerque Predictions Summary
Posted by on June 6, 2014
My picks for this event are:
- Benson Henderson over Rustam Khabilov
- Ross Pearson over Diego Sanchez
- John Dodson over John Moraga
- Rafael Dos Anjos over Jason High
- Piotr Hallmann over Yves Edwards
- Erik Perez over Bryan Caraway
- Sergio Pettis over Yaotzin Meza
- Lance Benoist over Bobby Voelker
- Scott Jorgensen over Danny Martinez
- Jon Tuck over Jake Lindsey
- Patrick Cummins over Roger Narvaez
YEAR TO DATE
Last Event(s): 15-7 (68.2%)
Year to Date: 128-70 (64.6%)
DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER
Last Event: +$4.20
Current Bankroll: $83.91
Total Investment: $167.07
Total Return: $33.91
Return on Investment: 20.3%
Last week, I had bets on just two of the 22 fights scheduled: $3.00 bets on Mark Munoz and Robbie Peralta. Munoz got humiliated by Gegard Mousasi but Peralta came through with a split decision victory against Rony Jason. Since Peralta was +240, the result was a profitable day.
For this event I have…
NOTHING!
I hate to say it, but when I look at the betting lines for this card, there’s absolutely nothing that stands out to me as a great value. There are certain fighters I think are close though. I almost bet on Diego Sanchez at +160, but now he’s slipped to +150. If Sanchez hits +175 or better then I’ll put a bet down. I’m also intrigued by Jason High at +250 against Rafael Dos Anjos even though it’s a tough style matchup for him. I think Lance Benoist should be favored against Bobby Voelker, but +110 isn’t a good enough price for me to put my money where my mouth is on that one.
I also suspect that John Moraga and Yaotzin Meza are each a decent value at +450 against John Dodson and Sergio Pettis, but once again, they’re not a good enough value for me to risk my (admittedly trivial amounts of) money.
Finally, I’m tempted to “fade” Patrick Cummins but I can’t do it when I don’t know much about his opponent, Roger Narvaez.
If the lines move enough to where I think there’s value, I’ll put the plays on Twitter. For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.
For those of you who do have bets down, best of luck and enjoy the fights!
Fantasy Fights 
4 unit parlay: Dos Anjos/Pettis/Dodson
2 unit parlay: Pearson/Perez
Best of luck to you as always!
For now, I just don’t like this card from a degenerate gambling perspective… which I guess makes me the opposite of a degenerate gambler.
-this attitude and your knowledge makes you potentially very good gambler, stay smart David, you’re doing great job
Thanks, I appreciate that!
You should have played David. Sanchez & Benoit get the job done. I played them straight and had Benson + Hallmann parlay (which i wrote about on your site), and Joanna Jedrzejczyk from Cage Warriors (top WMMA polish prospect). As I said lately, I’m from Poland and this two were amazing yesterday. I’m sad because of Krzysztof Jotko’s loss but he is still a good figher. From the next UFC I like playing Tyron Woodley at plus money. Physsicall strenght and wrestling should play a big factor
I probably would have won money if I had put some bets down, but I would have felt just plain dirty if I won money on Diego Sanchez this time. I’ll be sure to check out Joanna.
Jedrzejczyk had done what Jessica Andrade couldn’t. Finished fight in the distance.
I didn’t watch the fight, but judging on fightmetric and sherdog scoring system which was 30-27 for Pearson, this split decision looks like a pretty big rip off.
idk how anyone could even make a case that Diego Sanchez won his fight. He was getting outstruck badly by Pearson. It was an easy 30-27 for Pearson. Worst decision in UFC history imo.
I had it 30-27 Pearson as well. I’ll have to go back and watch Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann and see which decision I think was worse. This is definitely one of the worst ever though.
I had it 30-27 Pearson and so did most people. Even 29-28 Pearson is a stretch in my opinion. 30-27 Sanchez is so far beyond logic and reason that I simply cannot comprehend how a judge would score the fight that way.
UFC 174 has some tough fights to pick, a lot of close lines. These are my picks so far:
Arlovski (only at + money) should be able to keep fight standing and pick up UD.
MacDonald (only at +money) gut feeling on this one.
Feijao (only at +money) i dont trust Baders chin.
Tough event for sure. I’ll really have to do my due diligence with this one. Congrats on cashing your 4 unit parlay by the way.
I agree on Arlovski and Feijao, but I’m not so sure about MacDonald, Woodley showed huge improvement in striking last fight and vicious punching power, he even scored one knockdown. I just think Woodley has more paths to victory then MacDonald.