UFC Fight Night Bangor Predictions Summary

My picks for this event are:

• Ryan Bader over Ovince St-Preux
• Ross Pearson over Gray Maynard
• Brad Tavares over Tim Boetsch
• Seth Baczynski over Alan Jouban
• Shawn Jordan over Jack May
• Robbie Peralta over Thiago Tavares
• Zach Makovsky over Jussier Formiga
• Sara McMann over Lauren Murphy
• Sam Alvey over Tom Watson
• Frankie Saenz over Nolan Ticman

PICKS TO DATE

Last Event: 9-3 (75.0%)

Year To Date: 194-101 (65.8%)

 

DEGENERATE GAMBLER’S CORNER

Last Event: +$0.45

Current Bankroll: $81.70

Total Investment: $226.22

Total Return: $31.70

Return on Investment: 14.01%

At UFC on Fox 12, Matt Brown and Andreas Stahl both fell short but Bobby Green came through with a split decision victory, securing a profit of a quarter and two dimes. Hooray profit!

For this event I have…

Robbie Peralta +160: $3.00 to win $4.80 – For some reason, Peralta is consistently an underdog against mid-level UFC types like Rony Jason and Thiago Tavares. I think Peralta is better than he gets credit for – a power punching offensive striker with good takedown defense. Peralta has a ceiling but I think he’s better than Tavares.

Jussier Formiga +290: $3.00 to win $8.70 – When Jacob Volkmann fought Paul Sass, the thinking was that Volkmann was going to take Sass down, and that 15 minutes was a very long time for Volkmann to have to survive Sass’s attacking guard game. The same thing applies here. Zach Makovsky is a similar fighter to Volkmann, a wrestler with three submission losses, and now he’s fighting a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace. Formiga doesn’t spam submission attempts like Sass does, but he’s very slick on the ground and should make things very difficult for Makovsky.

Sara McMann inside the distance +332: $3.00 to win $9.96 – I have a hypothesis that there’s a market inefficiency with highly favored wrestlers. I think when a fighter is a heavy favorite to win, that fighter will win inside the distance frequently regardless of fighting style. So when Sara McMann is a -420 favorite to win outright but a +332 underdog to win inside the distance, I have to take advantage of that. I’m counting on McMann having improved her skill set since her pre-UFC days.

Sam Alvey +105: $3.00 to win $3.15 – This is far from the best price available on Alvey so far; he was listed at +160 at one point. However, I fear the line might only get worse from here, and I think Alvey’s punching power makes him a favorite over Tom Watson.

 

Mandatory disclaimer: I am NOT a betting professional and I do NOT recommend you follow my plays in any serious way. I’m doing this for fun and as an experiment, not a livelihood. If you make any bets, you do so at your own risk.

Best of luck and enjoy the fights!