SILVA 1.1 to (Hopefully) be Released Soon

While I really enjoy watching, reading about, and writing about fights, I have to admit that the recent UFC schedule has been pretty nuts. We’ve just gone through UFC events on four consecutive weeks, and there was a Strikeforce event on the week before that. So for me, that means a lot of fights to enjoy watching, but at the same time, instead of doing things like original research and working on SILVA, I have to devote my time to processing SILVA scores and researching and writing about fights.

Now, I have three weeks to do some of these other things before the next UFC event. This means that I finally have some time to address some of the problems that I’ve identified with SILVA. I have a number of ideas on ways to potentially improve the system that need to be tested, and now I’ll have the time to actually perform these tests and refine the system a little bit.

I think there’s a reasonable limit to how accurate a rating/prediction system can be for the UFC, and my educated guess is that the limit is somewhere between 63% and 65%. Right now, SILVA is good for about 61% of fights, which is a respectable success rate. What excites me is that I believe there are some issues in the system that are easily identified and correctable, meaning that there’s plenty of room to improve on the concept behind it.

Here are some ideas that I have for improving SILVA:

-The Fight Level statistic is currently based on a fighter’s last ten fights. The number of fights eligible for the statistic is about right: fights before that have relatively little relevance. For example, Ken Shamrock shouldn’t be evaluated as a fighter right now based on beating Bas Rutten in 1995. I’ve done a little bit of experimenting with how many fights should be eligible, and ten seems to be about right. The problem is what happens when a great win or bad loss goes just outside of the ten-fight window. Melvin Guillard is a perfect example. Guillard had a SILVA score of 31.54 going into his fight against Joe Lauzon. After losing to Lauzon, Guillard’s SILVA score actually increased to 33.21. The reason is that Guillard’s worst loss, to Rich Clementi, now happened 11 fights ago instead of ten. What I want is for the Fight Level statistic to slowly fade older fights out, instead of fully considering them at one moment and completely discarding them the next. If my concept works right, Guillard’s SILVA score would have slowly gone up by winning his fights recently, and then would have gone down after losing to Lauzon.

-One thing that bugs me about the current system is that it’s disjointed. That means that fighters who have a rAP above 43.00 have a SILVA score that is COMPLETELY based on their rAP. Fighters whose rAP is between 10.00 and 43.00 have a SILVA score that is COMPLETELY based on their Fight Level, NOT their rAP. And fighters whose rAP is lower than 10.00 have a SILVA score that is COMPLETELY based on their rAP. I want to find one elegant formula that combines these statistics instead of applying them in such a disjointed manner. Doing so would help to reduce the SILVA scores of fighters like Paul Sass, Edson Barboza, Chris Weidman, and Matt Mitrione to a more reasonable level, as SILVA is probably a little too enthusiastic about them at the moment.

-I’ve documented that SILVA tends to struggle with once-great fighters currently on the decline. Fighters like Fedor Emelianenko, Matt Hughes, and Takanori Gomi spent so much time winning fights and building up a huge rAP, that their rAP doesn’t decline nearly fast enough to catch up to the actual decline of their respective skills. My idea is to have rAP measure a fighter’s last 10 to 20 fights instead of his entire career.

-I want to diminish the impact of a fighter having one great win after a large number of irrelevant losses, or one bad loss after a large number of great wins.

There are other aspects of things I want to change that refer to the specific formulas I use, and I’m not prepared to disclose those at this time.

Hopefully I didn’t confuse you too much with everything written above, but my plan is to have a new and improved SILVA by the time the week of UFC 137 begins. I plan on writing things here on this blog in the meantime as well, but if it seems like content has slowed down considerably, it’s probably because I’m focused on improving SILVA. Stay tuned!

My Thoughts on the Nick Diaz Fiasco

By now, everybody and their brother has written about what went down with Nick Diaz being removed from a title fight against Georges St. Pierre and instead matched up against B.J. Penn at UFC 137. So I’ll keep this post short.

I’ve been on the record as stating that I didn’t feel that Nick Diaz deserved a UFC welterweight title fight against St. Pierre. In my view, too many of Diaz’s recent opponents have been below the championship standard. Sorry, but fighters like K.J. Noons, Evangelista “Cyborg” Santos, Scott Smith, and Muhsin Corbbrey don’t cut it for me. The win against Paul Daley was nice enough, but that should make Diaz simply another contender, not a guy who’s ready for a championship fight.

So, from a purely sports perspective, I’m glad that Diaz has been lifted in favor of Carlos Condit, who is more deserving of the opportunity in my opinion. And I will echo what St. Pierre said when he claimed that Condit is a better fighter than Diaz: the SILVA scores are 37.34 for Condit, compared to 30.66 for Diaz. This doesn’t mean that I think Condit will do anything like actually beat St. Pierre, but I do think he has a better chance than Diaz did.

With that said, B.J. Penn represents the kind of opponent that if Diaz beats, he would deserve a title shot. None of Diaz’s recent opponents are nearly as good or accomplished as Penn, and Diaz has been in trouble against those opponents enough times that I think Penn can take him out. But if Diaz is able to beat Penn, then that would give him the kind of win that would make him a much more credible challenger.

As for Diaz missing press conferences… look, it’s very simple. If I don’t show up to my job, and I don’t have a very good excuse, then I get fired. It’s as simple as that. I’m not arguing for Nick Diaz being cut from the UFC, but at some point, personal responsibility has to be accounted for, and like it or not, Diaz has shown very little of that responsibility. Maybe he has social anxiety, and maybe there’s something else going on, but whatever it is, Diaz has not handled the situation in a professional manner.

Some Thoughts On Recently Announced UFC Fights, Including Frank Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

So the UFC decided that it was going to unload a ton of fight announcements, including some very major ones, in a very short period of time. Now that my head’s stopped spinning, here are my quick thoughts about the fights that have been announced.

UFC 136 – Lightweight Title Match: Frank Edgar (50.23 SILVA) vs. Gray Maynard (54.05)

In the first fight between these two, Gray Maynard used his superior power and wrestling ability to stifle and frustrate Frank Edgar. In the second fight, Maynard bombarded Edgar early with power strikes, knocking Edgar down multiple times in the first round. Then Edgar came back against a fatigued Maynard to force a draw. It’s hard to see Edgar being able to deal with Maynard’s power this time around, but now that Edgar is experienced against Maynard, maybe he’ll find a way to wear Maynard out without taking too much damage.

UFC 136 – Featherweight Title Match: Jose Aldo (48.14) vs. Kenny Florian (36.54)

First, let me express disappointment that Chad Mendes isn’t getting this opportunity, after he was originally set to face Aldo at the upcoming UFC 133. With that said, I understand why the UFC wanted to put this fight together: Kenny Florian is a name that casual UFC fans know and recognize, and presumably would help introduce those fans to the new UFC featherweight division. Unfortunately for Florian, I see him becoming 0-3 in title fights after facing Aldo; I don’t see Florian either being able to handle Aldo’s striking or taking him down consistently enough.

UFC 133 – Light-Heavyweights: Alexander Gustafsson (33.76) vs. Matt Hamill (32.45)

Supposedly, Vladimir Matyushenko was going to be the UFC’s next choice to fight Rashad Evans if it turned out that both Lyoto Machida and Tito Ortiz turned the fight down. It’s a good thing Ortiz accepted, because now Matyushenko is out of his fight against Alexander Gustafsson. His replacement, Matt Hamill, needs a win very badly after his lackluster decision loss to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 130. This should be an interesting battle of striker vs. wrestler: I like Gustafsson a lot, but the one time he’s faced a great wrestler in the UFC, he lost to Phil Davis. Still, Hamill is not near Davis’s level, so this should be a close, competitive match.

UFC 136 – Middleweights: Demian Maia (44.11) vs. Jorge Santiago (32.75)

I recently speculated about Demian Maia’s UFC future, suggesting that the top two potential opponents for him were Jorge Santiago and Chris Leben. I then stated that I felt a fight against Leben was more likely. As I usually am when predicting future matchmaking, I was wrong. Maia will, in fact, face Santiago, who is just 1-3 in his career in the UFC. While some may suggest that Santiago will have an advantage in the striking department, Maia did quite well for himself against Mark Munoz at UFC 131. With Santiago’s weak chin, there’s a real chance Maia wins this by TKO. Of course, Santiago will not want to play the ground game with Maia, so on paper, I think this is a good fight for Maia and a bad fight for Santiago. Full disclosure: I’m a huge fan of Demian Maia.

UFC 136 – Lightweights: Melvin Guillard (31.54) vs. Joe Lauzon (29.92)

This seems to be a strange fight for Melvin Guillard to lobby for if he wants to fight for the title, as Joe Lauzon isn’t really in title contention right now. Despite that, Lauzon represents a better test of Guillard’s ground game than any of Guillard’s recent opponents. If Guillard wins this fight, and I think he will, I anticipate that he’ll move way up the ladder for his next fight. Still, time may be running out for Guillard; the 9-year rule strikes for him in November.

UFC 137 – Heavyweights: Cheick Kongo (29.79) vs. Matt Mitrione (50.40)

I’ve thought for quite a while now that Cheick Kongo is something of a fraud; his UFC wins tend to be against guys like Mustapha Al-Turk and Dan Evensen. When Kongo faces fringe UFC opponents like Heath Herring and Pat Barry, he either loses or comes very close to it. When he faces high-level opponents like Frank Mir, he gets smoked.

I love Mitrione to win big here. Mitrione represents a blend of power and striking that Kongo hasn’t faced yet; the most similar opponent he’s had is probably Travis Browne, but I happen to think Mitrione is just plain better than Browne is. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Mitrione wins in round 1.

UFC 137 – Heavyweights: Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27.03) vs. Roy Nelson (30.48)

I thought Cro Cop should have retired after losing by KO in the third round to Brendan Schaub, and him being matched up against Roy Nelson doesn’t change my opinion. I’ve completely given up on the idea of “the old Cro Cop” showing up, so that probably means that his fight against Nelson will be often spent in the clinch, and has a high chance of being particularly awful. If recent history is any indication, Nelson will get a KO late in the third round after Cro Cop puts up “not that bad of a fight.”

UFC 136 – Heavyweights: Dave Herman (26.72) vs. Mike Russow (35.83)

It’s very hard to get a hold of how good Russow is at this point. He got obliterated for two and a half rounds by Todd Duffee before landing a KO punch out of nowhere. While that makes for an amazing highlight moment, it doesn’t bode well for Russow’s future as a UFC contender. Against Dave Herman, he’ll definitely want to take the fight to the ground; I think Russow will be good enough to win a decision in this one.

UFC 136 – Featherweights: Matt Grice (30.16) vs. Josh Grispi (26.62)

I have a secret suspicion that Joe Silva puts together fights based on the alphabet. Other random examples: Nik Lentz vs. Waylon Lowe, Quinton Jackson vs. Keith Jardine, Manny Gamburyan vs. Tyson Griffin, Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt… OK, maybe I have too much time to think about things like this.

I don’t know what happened to Josh Grispi. My baseless speculation is that there’s some performance anxiety related to competing in the UFC. It’s not that he lost to Dustin Poirier and George Roop, it’s that he got completely battered in the process. Under normal circumstances, I would take Grispi to win this fight, but given his recent performances… I just can’t do it. This is coming from somebody who generally puts very little stock in just a fighter’s recent performances.